3kg of weight on a 600kg beast is the equivalent of Usain Bolt carrying 400grams extra (assuming he's about 80kg, I haven't googled it!! lol).

Surely there are a dozen other factors that would have more effect on the outcome of a horse race other than weight including fitness and the horses optimum racing weight. For mine, it just seems so trivial.

Depends on the type of weight as well. Dead weight vs jockey weight.

Generally weight isn't a factor. It has some effect but how much who really knows. Its probably over factored in to a lot of decisions.

If you look at the Melb Cup. Most winners come from 54.5Kg and less. Why? I have no idea but must have something to do with weight.

Momentum.

There was a write up about it somewhere, explaining the physics of a horse carrying more weight and winning, but slow to get going. Once it picks up speed, type of thing Vs a less weighted horse that can sprint to the lead, but lose.

For me, what is more important is weight carried against any other horse. In New Zealand, the compressed handicaps mean that there is not enough spread to accommodate weight differences. A top horse winning with 58kg and re-rated to 60kg should still win, all other factors being equal. Many runners on the minimum are not getting the right amount of weight difference to have a good chance.

The weights in NZ were raised some time ago and yet horses are still winning with weights above 57kg. A fit, ready to run top horse should win over its best distances.

Interesting article here http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/new...jectid=10740755

__________________
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Ron Dufficy, who picks better priced winners than most so called experts, doesn't rate it as important.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

Weight is a factor, but not as the current handicap system is.
The spread in weights is simply not enough to efficiently handicap a good horse, nor favour an outsider.
In fact so many winners have been ridden by jockeys up to 1.5kg over handicapped weight as expressed by Racing Australia.
Weight is one of those excuses that race callers and punters perpetuate, if the horse loses it's because of weight, if it wins "oh the topweight defied the weight".

The biggest factor is the way the horse is ridden, how much ground it covers compared with other horses and the ability to overcome being posted 3 or 4 wide and still win.

When it comes to Usain Bolt it is the equivalent of him carrying a chocolate bar or a box of matches.
Imagine though, if he were running without lanes that equal the distance for all runners, and had the outside lane instead so had to run 50m or 100m more.

That's my take on it.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg