Something different for anyone interested in dutching place prices.

The following race with 12 runners.
10 runners dutched with the 2 favourites left out.
Total bet $34.
Approximate returns if....
3 places scored. Return stake + 50%+.
2 places scored. Return of stake.
1 place scored. Return half of stake (minimum return).

Columns show TAB No, Place price, Betting units and return.

1. 1.30 0 0
2. 9.10 2 18.20
3. 11.80 2 23.60
4. 1.00 0 0
5. 4.30 4 17.20
6. 4.20 5 21.00
7. 20.60 1 20.60
8. 3.20 6 19.20
9. 2.40 8 19.20
10 4.70 4 18.80
11 20.20 1 20.20
12 18.70 1 18.70

Prices from Gloucester Park (Harness) race 9
Monday 24/11.

No.4 won with 6 and 10 taking places.

Anyone else dutching place prices?

How do I get this stupid thing to space columns properly?

Debug,

Interesting concept but I can't understand how you can dutch TAB place prices, as in the last minute of betting they consistantly change, (more than win) and then 10 to 15 secs after the jump they change again.

Cheers

kenchar,
Thats true, they jump around like a hairy goat. However from test runs I have done they seem stay reasonably stable if the place pool size is large enough to absorb last moment plunges.

Place prices on harness races are regularly not even a 100% book and all runners can be backed for a nett profit at times.

cheers.

On the TAB ????? don't think so.

The example above is over 350%, terrible value.

Doesn't sound like a good idea to me. Looking at your figures you can either break even, win 50% of your wager or lose 50% of your wager - so to come out ahead in the long run you need the "win" situation to happen more often than the "lose" situation. Lets say on average the true odds of each of the two favoured horses running a place is $1.70 (this is probably being extremely generous given the actual odds in the race you quoted) - this translates to each of these horses having around a 58% chance of running a place. If you work it out this gives the following odds for the 3 overall scenarios (win/lose/draw):
Win (ie. both unplaced) = 18%
Lose (ie. both placed) = 34%
Draw (1 placed) = 48%

So about half the time you will come out even but you will lose almost twice as often as you win - doesn't sound like a winning strategy to me!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Thanks for your responses.

I didn't put the post up as a "winning strategy", just simply another way of looking at dutching place prices. It is always handy to have another option to look at when betting on multiple runners.

Don't get too carried away with the particular example I put up. That is only one race and one scenario.

The 350% book value is lousey I know, but hey! That's the TAB.

I did mean 300% place [obviously]. It ain't that uncommon to find a book with less than the above in harness racing.

Cheers.