After testing in past race samples I've been testing this idea on live races and its been failing. Until today. A massive day so I'II post it. Someone might be interested.

The idea is:

Look at the QTAB (AAP) ratings for the two topweights. Normally runners 1 and 2 but if 1 is scratched then 2 and 3, and so on.

Now, beginning at the bottom of the field, locate any runners in the lower half of runners with exactly the same ratings.

If #2 is rated 99 and #12 is rated 99, #12 is a selection. Simple. (Part of the rationale for this move is my observation that the AAP ratings tend to be more meaningful among runners lower in the field than among the topweights. If #1 is rated 100, so what? So is #3. But if #11 is also rated 100 among bottomweights rated in the 80s, that is significant.Or may be.)

Using a bit of judgement on races, this strategy fetches substantial winners and very beefy placegetter dividends. Bad day yesterday, but today:

Ips. R5 Miss La Tar, 3rd = $10.20
Ips R6 Keave House = unpl.
Ips R7 Something for Kate = Won 9.30/2.40
Ip[s R9 Under Covet = unpl.
Warw. R6 Kalakan = unpl.
Warw R6 Famous Dane = unpl.
War R8 Ash Rose = won 35.90/6.90
Balak. R5 Oxford Bella = unpl.
Ascot R2 Megadash = 3rd 3.30
Ascot R3 How ya doin = unpl.
Ascot R3 Valentino = unpl.
Ascot R3 Introndre = won. 21.20/3.60
Ascot R5 Rochatansky = 2nd 2.30
Asscot R6 Benega = unpl.
Ascot R6 Little Rosary = unpl.
Ascot R8 Noroshi = unpl.
Ascot R9 Ruling Icon = unpl.

A very effective way to locate suitable races is: Any race where #6 or above is among the three Radio Tab selections. Eg. 1-4-8, 2-6-1. Avoid races where the Radio Tab selects 1-2-3 or 1-2-4 etc. You'll find that today this filter eliminated most of the unplaced runners and left the winners.

Makes a 8% profit on wins in my samples but, as I say, has limped along in my live race tests. Until a big comeback today. Tommorow may be another story.

Happy punting

Hermes