I WOULD BE INTERESTED IN HEARING THE THOUGHTS OF FORUM MEMBERS ON HOW THEY APPROACH THE HANDICAPPING ASPECT OF RACE SPEED . DO ANY OF YOU GUYS/GIRLS DO YOUR OWN SPEED MAPS TO PREDICT SETTLING ORDER IN A RACE AND WHICH RUNNERS WILL BE HELPED OR HINDERED BY THE SPEED OF THE RACE . MY OPINION IS THAT THIS IS CRUCIAL PART OF FINDING WINNERS BUT I ONLY USE THE GENERAL DEFENITIONS GIVEN IN RACE PAPERS ( FAST/LEADER , ON PACE , MIDFIELD , BACKMARKER/STRETCH RUNNERS ) AND FIND THESE CAN BE A BIT VAGUE , WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ?

I don't go to the extent of creating speed maps as such but I agree that it can be very useful to know which horses are leaders - particularly at tracks like Moonee Valley where the on-pace horses generally win.

As far as determining which horses are leaders, on-pace, backmarkers etc I think the best way to go is to use the "in Running" figures that most form viewing/analysing software provide in their horse history. It is easy to look at the early positions (left hand columns) and see where a horse is usually placed.
It only takes a few minutes to do each race and this way you are making your own decisions - not some journalist's

I think a good way of approximating where a horse will be in the run is by adding up the positions where they were after settling in there last 4 or so races and divide by the number of races used to get a figure where the lower the number the closer to the lead and the higher the number the further from the lead.

Hope that makes sense

Cheers.

As a rule of thumb I generally use the 'speed' rating found in the 'Chartform' section of the Sportsman.

I have found this classification of leader (L), handy/on-pace (H) and backmarker (B) to be a good approximation of a horse's normal racing pattern.


Luckyboy

to zorro , testarosso and luckyboy , thanks for taking the time to offer your thoughts .

zorro - i also like to make my own decisions on a topic

testarossa - interesting , i'll be looking at that idea over the next couple of weeks

luckyboy - there the types of references i use at the moment , also the wizard form guide but as i said can be a bit vague

does anyone go to the trouble of using sectionals and a database to work out horses potential to cover the 1st 100 or 200m , and then there ability to cruise at a speed .

c'mon guys/girls , post your thoughts , i've been learning as much as i can over the past 12 months on horseracing and am very much a beginner at this . i won't laugh at you and if anyone else did it's there loss as it reflects on their stupidity for being on a forum and then make fun of what forums are for , the sharing of ideas .

HOW DO PEOPLE APPROACH PACE/SPEED IN RACE HANDICAPPING ?

G'day everyone,

To add to what others have said...

The position a horse is likely to settle in a field can be estimated by looking at previous in run positions. However you need to keep the following points in mind:

* Distance is a factor. A horse that races on the pace over 1400m won't necessarily have the early speed to race on the pace over 1200m.

* Barriers are an important factor (especially when combined with distance). Some horses only have enough speed to race handy when drawn towards the inside. If drawn wide they don't have enough speed to cross others going forward and they are likely to race further back i.e. midfield.

In terms of determining the early pace of the race, the following things are worth keeping in mind:

1. Generally speaking, the more lead and handy runners the faster the pace will be.

2. Distance to the first turn can determine how urgent jockeys are to obtain their preferred position. A short run to the turn means that jockeys on go forward horses will be keen to get there quickly to save being caught wide.

3. The type of horses drawn wide largely influence the speed of the race. If the widest drawn runners are go forward types there is likely to be pressure from them going fast enough to cross, while inside drawn runners kick up to maintain their position. The result is a faster early pace. If the wide drawn runners are all backmarkers then there will be little pressure from the outside and better drawn horses can comfortably start and take up their position without any pressure, creating a slower early pace.

Hope that helps.



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2004-03-18 08:48 ]

Race speed?!

Nice & slow please, nice & slow

__________________
Ta me go maith

You can go to sportscolour.com and see the last 5 city meetings at SYD & MELB and their entire meeting's sectional times for all races, plus all horses and their positions in running , giving each horses sectional times , say for their last 1000, 800, 600 400 200. Its free , all you do is register, hope that helps .

osulldj , thanks for your post did find it interesting .

goldmember , thanks for your post , have registered at sportscolor , a very handy site , thanks again