Only one selection for today:

Goulburn R6 no.1 - True Crown.

Only one selection for my system:
Horsham R5 no.3 - Palace Dawn.

Both winners today even though they were short. However, I have something a bit more interesting........I noticed that your figures start on March 6th so I decided to go back over the ratings for the days March 1st through to 5th (inclusive) to fill in the gaps and while I was compiling the results I noticed something very interesting.

Firstly I didn't really take much notice of the form (except where there wasn't any for most of the runners or for those with only 1 start) nor did I worry about the class of the race. All I was concerned with at this time was to get the raw data out as soon as possible and sift through it later.

Anyway, as I was compiling the data (by then I was using the sydney papers for prepost markets and nsw tab divs) a pattern began to emerge.

Now, I realise that it's only based on 5 days data but it may be worth checking back (if possible) to see if it stands up on the later data (for March 6-29).

Here are the findings:

No PrePost market restrictions.
No Form restrictions.
No #of runners restrictions.
No Class of race restrictions.
Used 4+ raters on unitab.
Wet track (slow or heavy) meetings were ignored.

4+ RATINGS:
===========
43 bets - 16wins (37.2%)
Win Returns: 49.8 units for a PROFIT of 6.8 units or 15.8% POT

43 bets - 32places (74.4%)
Place Returns: 45.84 units for a PROFIT of 2.84 units or 6.6% POT

5+ RATINGS:
===========
20 bets - 9wins (45%) !!!!!
Win Returns: 28.8 units for a PROFIT of 8.8 units or 44% POT !!!!!

20 bets - 14places (70%)
Place Returns: 20.2 units for a PROFIT of 0.2 units or 1% POT (a bit disappointing)

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OK, so now I put in ONLY the PrePost price restriction (top 3 in prepost market) and didn't worry about the others and this is what came out.

5+ RATINGS: (using prepost price restriction only)
===========
17 bets - 9wins (53%) !!!!!
Win Returns: 28.8 units for a PROFIT of 11.8 units or 69.4% POT !!!!!

17 bets - 14places (82.4%)
Place Returns: 20.2 units for a PROFIT of 3.2 units or 18.8% POT (a bit better).
---------------------------------------------
Plenty of action (over 3 per day) and a high won strike rate too. It maybe worthwhile having a look at these 5+ raters a bit longer term? What do you think, Michael?

And, when I applied ALL the filters (as per the system you've been tracking) I got 10 bets for 4 wins (9.9 units return and a small LOT) and 10 places (11.1 units return for a small POT).




_________________
Regards

[ This Message was edited by: michaelv on 2004-03-29 19:26 ]

[ This Message was edited by: michaelv on 2004-03-29 19:28 ]

Nice piece of research guys ,keep it up.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Michaelv. Yesterday's dividends were very disappointing. My tip was shown as $3.00 in the newspaper, yet only paid $1.60.

Your figures re the 5-plus pointers are very interesting. So I looked my selections from 6 March and identified those that had a gap of 5 points and more. The results are:

21 races for 13 winners. A strike rate of 61%. Most of them paid odds-on, which I suppose is to be expected. The return was $29.40 for a POT of 40%. For place betting there was 18 placegetters, some of which paid $1.00. The return was $22.50 for a POT of 7%. Overall, the POT applying all filters have performed better for both win and place betting. However the strike rate is not as good. The amount of selections, 21 of them, is still much too small to draw any real conclusions.

There were five Maiden races (my records from 6 March for Maidens are incomplete) for three winners. The return was $6.90 for a POT of 38%. Five selections placed, for a return of $4.90 for a LOT of 2%.

Of course, my figures reflect the selections in which ALL the filters have been applied. Without them, except for the pre-post rule, there would have been more selections, and they might have similar results to yours.

If possible, can you delete races where there were less than eight runners, and see if that improves your results?

From today I'll look at ALL selections that have 5 points-plus just as you did. However, I'll apply the pre-post and the less-than-eight-runners filters.