Last weekend went 5-1 on NRL and 3-4 on AFL for a total (for posted picks) of 8-5 +2.84 units.

POT is sitting at 21.78% and a strike rate of 61.5%

My goals are to go an average of 4-3 for each sport which would bring just over 12% POT at pinnacle.

6/7 dogs won outright in the NRL on the weekend.

For the AFL, faves/dogs were split 4 each. The game for the AFL I didn't pick was kangaroos vs richmond. The kangaroos was the better line, although not enough value for me to recommend.

I don't doubt whether the system will profit on the NRL (current total for NRL is 43-14, or nearly 1 in 10000). Not sure how it will do on the AFL though, hopefully last weekend will is not an indication of the rounds to come.

My system uses home advantage, away performance, travel, h2h and offensive/defensive ratings. It is relatively simple, and doesn't need many stats. It is exactly the same system that I used for Super 12s. I developed it for Wk 6 where it tested 24-4 on all previous '04 games. It went 29-11 for all games from round 6 on.

If any of you want to question why my computer model makes a particular pick I'll be happy to explain. Remember it doesn't take things like motivation, injuries, returns, and S.O.O into account.

Sometimes it'll appear spot on or way off. The important thing is that it's correct more often than not.

BTW Included that because I believe my system will pick more dogs than favourites. This weekend it selected 11 dogs and 3 faves.

Overall it has selected 15 faves 24 dogs for AFL with both winning 66%.

For NRL it has selected many more dogs than faves. I'm not sure how many more dogs it will normally pick since this season has been one for the underdogs, and that a winning system will have naturally picked more dogs so far.

For Super 12s it selected 22 favourites and 47 dogs. 15 of those favourites and 38 of those dogs won.

I'd gueess that underdogs will probally represent 66% of the picks.

Well, personally I would say that about 90% of my line bets are on the underdog. I very rarely back the favourites. I much prefer to have my team starting the game ahead rather than behind! :smile:

Of course, there is my home dog system which picked 2 from 2 on the weekend, but in other games as well, I still much prefer to go for the outsider. On the weekend, I had 4 line bets. 3 were on the underdogs (Port Adel, NZ Warriors and Syd Swans) and 1 was on the favourite (Essendon). I usually only back the favourite when I am totally confident that they're going to thrash their opposition and that was certainly the case with the Bombers.

By the way, the majority of times that I win with my line bets on the underdog, that team actually wins the match outright (eg. Warriors & Swans) but I still prefer to play it safe and use the start.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-08 07:39 ]

I still like the fact that I've profited off the faves I've bet.

It's definately been a very good year for the dogs in S12 and NRL. What did the home dogs finish at in S12?

Well, by my records, all home dogs went 18-5. However, my system doesn't include games where two NZ teams or two SA teams are against each other. My system actually went 14-1, and it went 11-1 after I posted the rules on here. :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-08 14:41 ]

System went 9-5 this weekend, 5-3 for AFL and 4-2 on NRL.

Totals for each sport are:
AFL 33-16
NRL 47-17
S12 53-16

I'm hoping to get double digit POT longterm.

So what is your POT at the minute there Mr J.

24.23%

Going 8-6 each week would give me 12% POT and I think that is quite achievable. Time will tell.

BTW the 24% is for NRL/AFL. It doesn't include my super 12s results.

O.K.
I've been going Multis and am getting one leg when it's a double and 2 legs when its a treble.
So I suppose my straight out rate would be similar.
In fact I will go over my records and see what my POT would have been straight out.
Multis sits at minus 100%.
I must be red hot to get one soon though.

Heed me all!

Cheers Mo.