I'd say it is zero days minus 1.

You have backtested a system, and it shows a profit.

Ask yourself, a) "Is it likely that I'm the only one to have discovered a) this successful system" and, b) Can I be sure that this mechanical system can continue it's success given that it is dependant on the behaviour of a 600kg horse, takes the trainers and owners motivation into account ........ etc.

Given that we (and how many "we's" are there working on this?!) have the ability to instantly analyse all sorts of information and backtest all the variables ...... then what are the odds that you have found something that works, that no-one else has found in 50 odd years.

Hypothetically speaking, say you have found a mechanical system that has shown a profit when backtested.

How long will it last?

and more importantly!!!!!!!!!

Your have discovered this successful system, are committed to it, continue to fine tune it ........ It slowly but surely doesn't produce the ODDS required for you to show a profit ......... When do you bail out?

I'm certain you would follow it into a loss.

So you've followed a successful system into a loss, where to now?

Start laying the selections?

"...where to now?"

Take a Bex and a good lie down. There'll be plenty of races on tomorrow - and a million other systems just waiting to be discovered.

One could try breaking races up into lots, in series of approx.10 or 15 or 20 bets ,trying to profit in each lot .

If one has say 10,15 or 20 outs in a row ,stop betting until one gets up, then start betting again.

It won`t work any worse than blindly following ones selections down the obiss ,never to be seen again.

The down side ,is that as a punter ,there is always that nagging question ,"what happens if my selection gets up at big odds" "I`ll be spewing"?

I guess one has to try & get over it & look for the next bet.

What we are attempting to do here ,is trying to control our betting activity when things are looking grim, so as to protect the dwindling bank.

If one is prepared to accept the run of wins, one also has to accept the run of outs.

Remember, the punters favorite bet, is always the next one .

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Cheers.

My mechanical system had (historically speaking) only had a losing run of 2 (twice) in 18 months (actual betting) until last week that was, when I had 4 losers in a row , AND I only back for the place. I couldn't believe it.
Today, my confidence was definitly eroded, the result..... Reward, Tribal Secret, Make Mine Scotch, Kim Lisa, and Avendo Matera, all backed for the place.
What I'm getting at, is that is no way we can predict HOW they fall.

If place betting ,the same percentage table can be employed.

If one had a place percentage SR of say 80% the expected run of outs should be 5 .

It might take 2 years to strike a run like that ,the idea is to be prepared for it ,because it will eventually happen.

The percentages will not be denied.

One could have a stop loss plan like stopping at the 4th, 5th or 6th out in a row ,then start again once a placegetter gets up.

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Cheers.

That's impressive shooting partypooper. Is it based on your own ratings?

shoto, in a way, but I use a mechanical selection method first to give me the base selections then work on it from there.

eg. (and this NOWHERE near how I select, just an eg.) say you only take horses quoted on racing radio as even mony shots, now we all know that the S/R will be somewhere near 47-48% resulting in a slight LOT. But if you use them as base selections only and then iether rate them youself, or apply filters, or only back em when you can get 5-4 or better etc etc. MAYBE you can turn a profit and if not you certainly should't lose much. (%)

Partypooper, your post above reminded me of a discussion one day with a good mate whilst having a few too many -

The short version being that this mate enjoys a bet on the nags but has somehow managed to win a few bucks over the years using the martingale system on roulette betting red only. But due to his age etc trips to the local casino have become more trouble than they are worth.

So on this particular day, when both 1/2 ********ed & discussing his non ability to gamble to his satisfaction anymore, I suggested why not apply his casino betting method to the horses, that being -

consider only those nags paying less than $2.60 & more than $1.80 2 minutes prior to jump, & you go from there - I wont explain the martingale here as I assume most will know what I am on about - if you don’t, try google.

So I put the question - anyone tried this?

I know the bank(s) required is(are) substantial, but if horses in this price range have a strike rate of about 45% & one employs a stop loss after say 6 losses, then this method would be money for jam, no?

The longest expected run of outs for 45% is 12 outs before a win.

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Cheers.