These are my own power ratings for 2004. I plan on using them in 2005.

Port 92.5
Bris 92.8
St K 92.2
Geel 91.7
Melb 91.1
Syd 90.7
WCE 90.4
Ess 90.3
Fre 90.1
Kang 90.1
Carl 87.8
Ade 89.6
Coll 89.1
WBD 87.5
Haw 85.8
Rich 85.6

How do I turn them into percentage probabilities?

Benny

Can you please tell me how you arrived at those figures??? Then I might be able to help.

Port allowed 1823 pnts which you multipled by 10 then divide the pnts scorded. Subtract that from a hundred.

E.G Port 1823*10= 18230/2413=7.5 100-7.5= a power rating of 92.5

Does that help?

Benny

Take Geelong and Melbourne. You've got Geelong 91.7 and Melbourne 91.1. I'm assuming that it basically means Geelong is a six point better team than Melbourne on a neutral ground??? Is that right?

I haven't factored in the home ground advantage.

Benny

If you want to work out ratings based on this years Home & Away, you could possibly think about this: Take a team's winning % and add it to their for & against % and then divide by two to get an average score. This should then give you some indication of the points differences between the teams.

In this case, it would be:
105.0 Brisbane
104.9 Port Adel
100.3 St Kilda
94.1 Geelong
87.8 Melbourne
83.2 Sydney
81.4 West Coast
78.5 Essendon
75.3 Fremantle
72.9 Kangaroos
66.0 Adelaide
63.8 Collingwood
63.6 Carlton
51.2 W.Bulldogs
44.2 Hawthorn
43.7 Richmond

That's not counting the Finals series though. If you did that, of course Port would be ahead of Brisbane.

Thanks. I might try it next year, but after a couple of rounds. What do you think?

Benny

With the soccer. I came up with this for the ManUtd v Crystal Palace.

Man Utd 2.53
Crystal Palace 0.41

Allowing 0.5 for each goal.

2.53-0.41=2.12

Man Utd by 4 goals

Price Man Utd $1.83 %=54.64
Crystal Palace $2.20. %=45.36

I'm not sure about the draw's % or price. Can someone help?

Benny

Benny,

You've got those teams TOO CLOSE!!! If you wait a while, I'll work out a table for you similar to the AFL one.

Well, a bit more difficult than I thought, so that chart will have to wait a little while. Trust me though, you've got those two teams too close together. Let's just see how those ratings go first.