Think it's just that she has so many good horses in the same races.

Red Oog definitely is a first up specialist. Yesterday makes it 5 first up runs for 4 wins and a 3rd. And I assume the announcer was like me in referring to a real spell as being 12+ weeks, not one of these little mini spells of 6 weeks or so. He was one of my best bets yesterday as was Shania Dane.

Ok, I stand corrected.... I had a closer look at his form and I can see that he had 12 weeks off between 18/9/04 and 9/10/04 and won his first race back at Rosehill over 1200 carrying 56kg...

I should have seen that, but I can't see that that makes him a first up specialist. He's only had 9 starts in the last 12 months...

I had him as third pick in my assesment with Resistor and Dance the Waves on top, Domigos and Presently were next best.

I went with Dance The Waves & Resistor with Red Oog, Presently & Damigos as savers..

It really wories me when one gets under me like that as clearly my assesments need improvement. I ended up with the first 5 finishers but not in my desired order.. Same sort of thing happened in R8 but I will admit Dance Hero was clearly the class horse in the race. I had the first 4 (not the bet, just my assesment)

Oh well, so much yet to learn.

Regards

OzPunter

Don't you look back past the last 12 months? Red Oog had had 4 previous first up runs for 3 wins and a 3rd in it's entire career. I'm sure most form guides should tell you that.

Saturday was a real downer for me....I'm a bit annoyed with some of my bets..
Infinite grace was way to risky especially in sydney..Tristo was risky especially after the rain and his pattern of racing..
Baraba rd in adelaide is starting to costing me as well...
Thank god for the roller..after watching ballet society i couldn't have enough on him,,,
I layed out fairly large on tris and 1st4's and had my first loss in 2 months..
wich tells me its not panick time yet but a good wake up call....

in a nother post i was talking about money pit horses.
barraba road is in the category as is cobamuse.
a feature of adelaide races is that longevity isnt a great attribute lately.
llast years horse is exactly that.
chaff stealers i think they call them.

had a couple of good wins yesterday among some losers.
cats clause (had to back the tasmanian) and niagara falls. )
i wonder about the weight for age races in sydney as i have always done for many years. seems to be a gift for the top trainers.
iimagine 5 horses in the ranvet.
reminds me of tie the know who no doubt was a good horse but won 8 million or something like it but only once outside sydney.
(probalbly be corrected on that but i recall him winning a group one in melbourne (underwood i think)

__________________
laurie