I've been reading a book called "Watching Racehorses - a guide to betting on behaviour" by Geoffrey Hutson. This fella throws the form book pretty well completely out of the window and just looks at the horses to see how they are behaving in the birdcage, in the ring, in the yard and on the way to the start in order to decide who to bet on.
Your first thought might be that he must be a crank (or not) but he has done a very scientific study, crunched the numbers with a statistics program in a computer, etc, etc, and come up with some very interesting results.
He has about 60 points that he looks for in the horse from whether it is pawing the ground, the angle of it's head, if it's ears are flicking, etc, and other points such as if the horse needs two strappers, if the horse has a dump or walks sideways.
Early in his study he found that he couldn't really predict winners by his method but he had measurable success in picking losers. Basically, if the horse hasn't got it's mind on the job or looks to be carrying an injury or has had too much racing and ins't keen to run again, it ain't going to win.
I can't do it justice here but a few of the major pointers are bandages are bad - horses win much less often carrying bandages, a crossover noseband is bad. Kicking, weaving, fighting the bit, etc, all bad signs, arriving late and overweight jockey are statistically bad also.

The book is well written with digressions into such things as the dangers involved when men vaccuum in the nude, the detection of horses who are performing clitoral winking (very bad sign - she just hasn't got her mind on racing) among some very helpful hints for those of us who go to the track.
His most successful races are 2YO fillies races, mares races and restricted races so that would give a lot of us a bet in races we usually avoid.

Give it a read, it's a whole new perspective.

KV

LOL overweight jockeys are bad?!?! Surely not! How about drunk ones? How about ones who five minutes before the race have received an envelope full of cash??

Ooh, ooh, I know!! How about horses who have an erection? I part own a colt who wouldn't load in a mixed trial because he had an erection behind the stalls and was "spraying" the fillies!!!! Is that a good sign??

Looks very interesting KennyVictor. Lots of photographs, figures & tables. Based on observation of over 10,000 horses. Love the claim that by simply betting on favourites with perfect behavioural handicaps it is possible for a casual racegoer to turn a normal 5% loss into a 10% profit.

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Ta me go maith

KennyVictor,that is the funniest thing I've read all season.You reduced me to rubble....tears of laughter as well.Guess really what Hutson is confirming the common sense things do matter....routine is paramount to success and any variation is to be viewed with shrewd scepticism.I think the key phase that we want is "controlled aggression".I like my mules calm in the ring but starting to fizz up as they enter the barrier....that is mentally alert.There,that's a system.
P.S.um..men vaccuming in the nude....very funny....never done it myself....is there a racing system in there somewhere?

I quote from the book here (and hope I don't infringe copywrite).
"While investigating this rather indelicate matter of horse masturbation I came across some information that needs to be passed on to punters in the interest of occupational health and safety. Surgical registrars at two London hospitals reported on several disturbing cases involving penile injuries to humans caused by, of all things, vacuum cleaners. In one case a 60 year old man said that he was changing the plug of his Hoover Dustette vacuum cleaner in the nude while his wife was out shopping. The machine 'turned itself on' and caught his ********** causing severe lacerations. In another case a 65 year old signalman bent down to pick up his tools and caught his ********** in a vaccuum cleaner which happened to be switched on." So it goes on.

I like an author who is concerned about the welfare of his punting friends as they go about their household chores.

KV

Hi Paddy,

You've obviously read the book I'm interested to know if you felt you gained anything useful from it since it's sort of off at a tangent from most peoples way of picking a winner.
It's so opposite from my selection style (which is to sit in front of a computer and pretty much bet on the horses without even knowing their names, in fact lately I don't even listen to the races on the radio let alone watch them) that most of the time I can't really employ anything from the book directly. I have to say though that on the rare occasions when I go to the track it will make my day out more enjoyable and if I'm tossing up between a couple of close selections watching them at the track or on TV having read the book may well make the choice of which one I pick a lot easier.
Plus of course I'll always vacuum a lot more safely in future.

KV

Your colt really isn't exceptional Duritz. The author quotes a 7 day study by Dr M Tischner who found that of the 7 stallions he watched (using a flashlight at nights) they had an average of 7.4 erections per day, 3.8 full erections and attempted to masturbate 4.1 times. The stallions spent 38 minutes a day on average with an erect **********, 19.5 minutes of this time was spent masturbating. Sue McDonnel however in her study found an average of 18 erections a day in stabled horses, 75% of them including masturbation (broken down in to 83% bounces, 57% presses and only 13% pelvic thrusts). This book doesn't skimp on detail. However ejaculation was only observed on 4 of 447 occasions so maybe your horse was good performer - outside the stalls at least.
Unfortunately sexual signs are not a good omen for the horses winning prospects. Perhaps you should consider it for breeding.

KV

To be honest if you know how to do it then that is the best way to pick your horses....my misses has been around horses and i hate it when she decides sje wants a bet when they have them on TV she just looks at the horses in the parade ring and says "Oh i like that one he is a pretty horse or that one looks really nice with a nice coat" and i tell you what she is never far wrong...been trying to get her to the track for years but she doesn't like to bet....gees wish i could be like that and just look at a horse and decide.

Does she vacuum in the nude?