My research tells me ,that one will strike more winners chasing a conscences panel of tipsters rather than a single tipster.
e.g. Weekend Ausralian , Herald ect.
The Wizard racing paper has a 36% SR from its top 2 conscences panel of computer generated selections. Big difference in SR, similar average div.
They can have days where they strike short prices when they win but they also have prices that get up at suprisingly higher than expected.

Individual tipsters have an average SR of 35%
Therefore ,expect a longer run of outs, their prices can be stronger ,but it depends on the day if the the Favs want to get up all day or not.

If one is good at separating the 2 horses out of the top 2 selections for a result , one should have a million dollars by Xmas.
With a 45% strike rate from the top 2 , the people advocating that this is not the way to go & that there are better ways of doing this ,should have no problem sorting the strongest selection from the said top 2 & only backing them if they are satisfied with the price on offer. Otherwise let the race go.

The fact remains , that the top 2 have a 45% SR , so build on that.


Idea No.1
Target the top 2 in most Fav column in the Weekend Ausralian.
Target races 1400M+
Bet the one with the worst weight rating (100Pters) as per TABQ or Wizard form guide.ect.
What we are trying to do here ,is chase the value runner of the 2.
Its amazing how many winners this produces & some at very good prices.


I would like so see if there are punters out there who would like to share some different ideas, on how they like to use them.

__________________
Cheers.

G'day Bhagwan,
There is definite evidence to support your assertion re consensus opinion being superior to any one individual's opinion in selecting the correct outcome of future events. I remember reading an article on the subject in "New Scientist" a couple of years ago. I have made a cursory search for the magazine in my library without success so far but I keep them and it is somewhere close at hand. If you are interested I will find it out and post the relevant item on this thread.
The point of the article,as I recall, briefly, was that the opinion had to be from people who had studied the question and given it serious consideration. All that sounds rather obvious I know but the results were impressive. (From memory the consensus was of opinions on who would win major categories at the Oscars.)
I also remember that there was a rating competition held a few months ago on this forum or the other racing forum and that the tipsters' results were remarkable as far as the majority (i.e. consensus) picking the winner (and exotics) was concerned. During the competition one of the contestants suggested that it might be the basis for a system. I don't know if anthing came of it but I'm sure he was right and I'm even more sure that they had a better strike rate than newspaper tipsters.
All the best.

Bhagwan,
I'm intensely interested in having a million dollars by Xmas but I think I'm missing the start of this thread. I see you state individual tipsters have a strike rate of 35% from the first two selections but I can't see where the 45% figure came from.
Can you fill in the blanks for me please.

KV

The 45% he's talking about is from the top 2 horses in the Most Favoured column in the tipsters poll. In other words the consensus of all the tipsters in the paper.

Thanks Sportz.

KV

I dont know if this would work re using the WIZARD but say you eliminated the 18 pointer and bet the next 2 consensus horses .
The theory being that every mugs on the $1.70 horse and the next 2 could be the basis of very good prices.
Cheers.
darky.

Hi Darky,
I see this opinion expressed fairly often but I wonder if the average bloke in the TAB actually bets on odds on pops for the win? Sure he'll include them in the exotics but I reckon most mugs still stick to the old "odds on, look on" theory. Then they try to find something to beat what is probably a fair bet, even at odds on.
Regards

With a 45% strike rate from the top 2 , the people advocating that this is not the way to go & that there are better ways of doing this ,should have no problem sorting the strongest selection from the said top 2 & only backing them if they are satisfied with the price on offer. Otherwise let the race go.

Good on you Bhagwan,
I'm sick of the knockers, and what you say is so true, what a great opportunity for all the experts, all they have to do is look at 2 mules and sort them out in relation to form and price.
Keep up the good work, I'm positive there are many on the forum that appreciate your time and effort.
Whether they use your methods or not is up to the individual, but as far as I'm concerned you put more into this forum as far as trying to help than any other contributor.

All the best

G'day All,
As promised earlier I have located an article from a magazine of a couple of years ago which is relevant to this topic. Unfortunately, the file is too large to attach to this post. If anybody wants a copy they can e-mail me at emerson754 at hotmail dot com and I'll send it. Let me know if you have winzip when you do.
I also have to agree with jfc re value obtainable from newspaper tipsters. Too many people follow them.
I reckon we could do better by establishing our own panel of raters for the three or four best races per weekend and follow them. Are the newspaper tipsters any better than our own forumites as a team? The ratings competition suggests our team would more than hold its own.
All the best

I may be getting off the point here but this sums up my thoughts on value. If a horse at double figure odds gets up to beat our own selection, the first thing we do is look at the form of that horse and ask ourselves why did it win and why was it as such good odds. I will guarantee it was at good odds for any one or combination of the following:

1. lots of 7 8 9 or zeros in form
2. unfashionable jockey or trainer
3. WIDE BARRIER
4. SUPPOSEDLY unsuitable distance/going/track
5. not in most favoured column of tipsters panel

The more of these factors that apply to my top rated selection the happier I am . It means A BETTER PRICE . How many top rated selection criteria actually make a profiit as a single factor? such as the top jockey or trainer, horse with the best strike rate at the distance or going or track. Not many I bet and that is because they are overbet.

The method I now use is to just use the best rating of the last three runs and price the race accordingly. no bonuses or penaltys for top jockeys good barriers or distance specialists, just the best recent run. The strikerate of my top selection probably wont be as good as those who add other factors in but the prices I get will overcome that.