The Stradbroke barrier draw held today throws up the age old question. Does barrier matter? Lord Essex from one and Crawl from the car park has already seen a shift in the pre jump betting.

Does anyone immediately eliminate runners because of their barrier position (depending on the course) and if so why?

The question to ask is - How much speed will there be in the race??

Normally races like this are fast run affairs but not always.

How do punters see it?

I'm thinking that the pace will be good, but not so fast as to give backmarkers like Crawl a strong chance.

****PERNOD****

How confident are you?
A lot of people are tipping that.

Personally I never eliminate a horse just because it has a wide barrier. Whilst it DOES affect the winning chances I personally believe that most punters overestimate the disadvantage and hence you can often get good value on those horses. I simply adjust my required dividend based on the barrier and then bet if the horse is paying more than that dividend.

In MY OPINION the "don't bet on it if it is wider than barrier X" is a symptom of the "look for the winner at any price" attitude rather than looking for the value in a race.

How confident re Pernod? I was confident 3 weeks ago and even more confident 2 weeks ago when I backed it. All it needed was for somebody to spit on the track and it's rained in Brisbane for the past 5 days.

My only concern is the weather changing and improving the track. It's 25 degrees according to the thermometer on my back porch as I type and the sky is a nice shade of blue. Let's hope it turns bad again!

Privateer you may need to dance some more the forecast isn't as good as needed!!!!

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Bartman
IDQ1009002
BRISBANE METROPOLITAN AREA
Mostly fine just a shower or two about overnight and Friday morning. Light to
moderate SE/NE winds.
Brisbane for Friday ... MIN 15 MAX 25
Bayside for Friday ... MIN 14 MAX 24
UV INDEX - 4 [High]
Saturday ... A little rain clearing late. MIN 14 MAX 25
Sunday ... Fine. Cooler morning. MIN 10 MAX 23
Monday ... Fine. MIN 10 MAX 22

Barriers? I disregard them as a factor in my selections. I figure there are so many variables that come into play once the gates are opened, that unless you are extremely adept at predicting early pace and/or each jockey's race strategy, then the advantage/disadvantage of barrier position becomes unclear. It does for me anyway.

Big races like the Stradbroke I tend to avoid as a betting proposition as my record is less than impressive. June, July and August are difficult enough!

ps. Placegetter, I see that Shocks is entered for Cheltenham Saturday (after its big finish at Strathalbyn 26/5)

__________________
Whatever happens, be happy.

Pernod is starting from barrier 13 which has only seen 3% of winners since 1996 from the 1400m starting gates...

My money will be elsewhere!

Supersoul - is that 3% of all 1400m races or 3% of 1400m races with at least 13 runners? If it is of all races then I suggest the statistic is worth nothing - the majority of 1400m races probably have 12 or less runners so barrier 13 would not be used very much.