Would i be BARKING up the wrong tree ?

Would anyone have say a months data or know an easy link where i could find results, im after odds vs evens for the win, ie dutch 1,3,5,7 then 2,4,6,8 ?
I was thinking fibanaci numbers style staking plan, ran through five days on unitab site but the eyes are hurting,

Thanks
Dingo

Without having access to a database, I will hazard a guess and say that the results would be pretty much the same either way. You would return 85-90% of your money.
To use a staking system you first must have found the best value possible.

There was a similar discussion on another thread comparing taking 1,2,7,8 versus 3,4,5,6 on the dogs.
The first option won much more frequently than the latter, yet returned less to the pocket.

Odds versus Evens however will not have a difference in frequency of wins.
1 vs 8
7 vs 2
3 vs 6
5 vs 4
These numbers are all comparible and added will give you the same return.
You are not increasing your value at all.
Maybe look at backing the 4 longest price dogs in the field, dutch them and stake them.
I personally would only ever consider a staking plan for a win bet on either the 4 or the 5, as I feel they give the best value.

Somebody with a database might come along and prove me wrong though.....

yeah, i had a little input on the other thread also,
The angle i guess im looking at is that dogs run and are so eratic then why not back them in some logical way, ie odds or evens?

I will play !.
Sorry if its posted in the wrong forum, wasnt sure where it went,
Cheers
Dingoboy

yeah, i had a little input on the other thread also,
The angle i guess im looking at is that dogs run and are so eratic then why not back them in some logical way, ie odds or evens?

I will play !.
Sorry if its posted in the wrong forum, wasnt sure where it went,
Cheers
Dingoboy

Hi Dingoboy.

As a person who has worked booking dogs for 20 yrs and supply tips for certain dog sites I can help you.

Forget all about any semblance of balance between odds and evens boxes.

At all tracks boex 4,5,6 are the worst performed normally in sprinting races --i.e shorter then 600.

Over the longer distances they still aren't the best boxes due to squeezing at the start but have more time to settle and recover rather then sprint races.


Over the last few years with wider boxes the 5 draw has seen a slight improvement but it still takes a dog with a lot of class ( or ********) to win out of 4 or 6.

I firmly believe in 6 / 7 races on a 10 race program you can leave the 4 or 6 out of any calculations or betting that you do.

You need to look at tracks individually as at some tracks the 7 and 8 have woeful records as races often start on a bend and that puts them wide out from the start and especially vulnerable when dogs run off at first corner due to interferences.

If you stick to 1,2,3 you will back 60% of winners.


Hope that I may have helped you Dingoboy.


Jaffa

__________________
A sports loving Aussie willing to discuss any racing topic especially if I can help myself and others to make some money on the punt.

I would rather win 1 race in 100 and have it pay 120 -1 than win 60/100 paying an average of $1.50.

My point is that strike rate on its own is irrelevant. The whole thing is strike rate in comparison with odds paid.
How many idiots are out there that back the 1 dog because of its inside draw? This dog is ridiculously overbacked and provides no value.
Just your suggestion to stay away from boxes 4 and 6 says to me that many people think the same. For this reason they become a good betting opportunity.
Let me ask you this. If a dog started from box 4 and was paying $2.5, then I would suggest from box 1 would start at about $1.2. Would you not back it because it was coming from the 4, yet back it at $1.20 from the 1?

I would not back a dog from any box under $3.00. You have to remember if he draws 1,2 thats rated 1-2 lengths better in any ratings market then 4 or 6.


Over a year at any major, Bris, Syd, Melb, Ade track, you want to back boxes 4 & 6, you can set with me mate.

Plenty of good dogs start from these boxes and are out of business by first corner.

I haven't helped set up markets for bookies for 20 years and not know what I am talking about.

Books lose by people plonking heaps on $4 pops that start at $2.50 and win.


And not from 4 or 6. You watch any leading trainer and they want to cut their arm of if they pick out the marbles 4 or 6 in big race.

__________________
A sports loving Aussie willing to discuss any racing topic especially if I can help myself and others to make some money on the punt.