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#1
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Line betting-Head to Head
So here is the head to head analysis over the past 5 and 10 meetings.And expected margins with allowance for ground advantage.
Sydney averages a 14 point win and seems like a good margin to me. St.Kilda has improved from 1 to 15 points recently but 4 points in a close one. Kangaroos dropped from 14 to 7 points recently,but smashed the Tigers last time.20 points. Collingwood averages 22 points ahead and that should continue. Carlton averages 5 points ahead and that suits me fine. Adelaide drops from 16 to 6 and may sneak it with 2 points to spare. Port Power smacks from 21 up to 56 recently.Another 56 point hiding coming up. Essendon dropped from winning by 18 to losing by a couple.I think they can win by a couple. These predictions have very little to do with current form.Only head to head comparisons.In fact many of them seem ridiculous.But what have most results this year been?. I expect that they will be an excellent predictor of which team to back at the line. 8 games at $20 a game costs $160.Get 4 right,and even throwing darts at the formguide will average that, and you still get back $152.All that entertainment for a measly $8. No wonder Mr J swears by line betting. Get 5 right and you just made 18.75% profit on turnover.Easiest $30 you could ever obtain. I'm keeping my $30 profit in my bank so I can bet $25 a game next week and win $37.50 Oh my GOD!.What if 6 get up?.Or 7?.Don't know about you,but I'm excited. |
#2
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HANG ON!
I just noticed that Sydney are at 14 points at the line.So I have them rated an even money chance at the line,but can only get $1.90!.Is it rational to back them anyway?. Yet Essendon are being given a huge start.Surely in that case,Essendon are a much safer bet than Sydney. YES CUSTOMERS.Enter the Overlay. Based on the above margins,here are the appropriate wagers at the line,allowing for a minimum 15% profit on investment. Essendon $25 Hawthorn $20 Carlton $20 Port Adelaide $25 Sydney No Bet Adelaide $20 Kangaroos $20 Collingwood $25 |
#3
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If you bet with Global Sportsbet you can put money in your account and every Friday they give you $1.95 for the $1.90 lines.
Also, instead of betting on most or all games if you just select say your best 3 or 4 you will probably have better results. Like the Bombers last night. We were never going to get poleaxed last night. +42 points. EASY |
#4
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I actually ha 3 bets.
Essendon Carlton Collingwood But I have learnt that the year 2000 and earlier results are irrelevant. So it's the last 5 head to heads only from now on! |
#5
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try,try and try again
LOST AGAIN.
Sometimes you just need to persevere with the trek. But most important are a working compass and a current map. The compass is to be sure you are headed in the right direction,and the map tells you if you are on the right path. Well I updated my map to use only the recent 5 head to head games. And used my compass and it tells me I'm headed for Collingwood pot'o'gold. Top 4 selections at the line became: Collingwood Kangaroos Adelaide Essendon 3 got up! And Collingwood play tomorrow. |
#6
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Here's the go for Round 13.
Essendon $1.46 Adelaide $1.51 Geelong $1.58 West Coast $1.61 Kangaroos $1.64 All overlays at the line of $1.90 |
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