YEAH. When I dared to suggest that they were on the slide and may even miss out on the 8???

There were only two teams that I got badly wrong last year and they were Port and Carlton.

Anyway, I'm going to wait a while before I sort anything out for this year. After what happened with Carlton, I'm going to treat the pre-season form very carefully!!!

These are the Scores I predict for the Nab 1st Round.
They are using my Ratings from last year and include an adjustment for improvement or decline due to team list changes.

Brisbane 85 Essendon 84 - 1
Bulldogs 98 Melbourne 86 - 13
Sydney 115 Kangaroos 93 - 22
Richmond 88 Hawthorn 72 - 14
Geelong 107 Carlton 61 - 46
Adelaide 118 Port Power 108 - 10
St.Kilda 113 Collingwood 66 - 47
West Coast 112 Fremantle 92 - 20

They need to be altered for the fact that it is the NAB CUP, 1st Round and
some teams desire to win...and others not as much.

Essendon - Sheedy mucks about too much minus 10
Sydney - Lack of desire to win NAB CUP minus 14
Geelong - Early favourites in markets plus 9
St.Kilda - I'm sure Thomas gonna test out some plans minus 14
West Coast - In it to win it plus 8

And then there is the ground advantage

Essendon minus 15
Melbourne minus 10
Richmond plus 6
Geelong plus 12
St.Kilda plus 14

Brisbane Essendon - 26
Bulldogs Melbourne - 23
Sydney Kangaroos - 8
Richmond Hawthorn - 20
Geelong Carlton - 67
Adelaide Port Power - 10
St.Kilda Collingwood - 47
West Coast Fremantle - 28

And of course these have not taken who's playing into consideration.
Another Factor I will consider is the Weather,Rain,Wind and Temperature.
Will be waiting till Match day before placing any bets.
I've decided this year to go straight out and with the points start.
No more taking minus points.Teams are out there to win,not necessarily by a big margin.

Yeah, I NEVER back a team that has to give up a start!!! I worked that out a few years ago after a couple of bad betting experiences.

I remember one time backing a team with a 20.5 handicap. I thought they would win by about 40 or 50 points, so 20.5 seemed reasonable to me. Well, after struggling for the first 3 quarters, they finally got on top in the final quarter and had a 19 point lead with a couple of minutes to go. At that point, they were obviously just relieved to have gotten out of jail, because they made absolutely no effort at all to score another goal. They just played around, basically passing it backwards and forwards to each other for the last 2 minutes, keeping it away from the opposition. Anyway, that tought me a lesson, and I've never backed a team that had to give away a points start again.

Latest modifications to Margins

Melbourne - Daniher suggests not concentrating on NAB Cup minus 7
Sydney - Impressive acceptance speech for 2005 coach of the year plus 5
Brisbane - team getting older minus 8
Fremantle - 2 Fine assistant coaches from Essendon plus 4
Essendon - 2 fine assistant coaches leave minus 4
Geelong - A lot of good players missing minus 10
Carlton - Won last year,maybe they would like to repeat? - plus 12
Melbourne - Fielding a reserves team minus 12

Brisbane Essendon - 22 $1.35 $3.75
Bulldogs Melbourne - 42 $1.15 $7.90
Sydney Kangaroos - 13 $1.55 $2.80
Richmond Hawthorn - 20 $1.40 $3.50
Geelong Carlton - 45 $1.10 $8.90
Adelaide Port Power - 10 $1.65 $2.60
St.Kilda Collingwood - 47 $1.10 $9.70
West Coast Fremantle - 24 $1.35 $4.00

Once you come up with the prices,they need to be compared with current markets and discrepancies need to be analyzed.
Not knowing the available markets as yet,but I believe I may have West Coast way under.Still think I have them about right.Bulldogs look mighty short but I'm happy so far with that price.

And the fella who got the EVENS about Adelaide last week,WELL DONE.Forgot your name.
Just goes to show it really pays to have a look at thr form before just coming up with a gut feeling.

Mo,

You have a weird sense of humour, so I sometimes can't work out if you're being serious or not. It looks like you're just plucking numbers out of thin air and taking a wild guess.

Not at all Sportz
I'm demonstrating how I come up with my results.
Start with the base ratings a la Don Scott.
Allow for all the variables that could influence the game.
Bonusses and penalties.
It's all there in black and white.

No thin air or hot air there.
I do acknowledge my reasoning prowess made a mess of the Greyhounds,but I have been much more accurate in my Football Ratings.
How about all the Footy Followers have a quick comp.NAB CUP.
A point a win.Results declared After the Grand Final.

I'm in..ANYONE??

Start my ball rolling for the year with $60 on Brisbane at $1.95

This is an unusual one mo. How does this factor in?

__________________
I like Bing Lee.

Early market for tomorrow nights games are

Brisbane 1.93 essendon 1.86

wbd 1.31 melbourne 3.40

Give both brisbane and melbourne big chance.


If you have a look at draw, there are games in perth week 1 & 2,

IMO that would put the winner of this weeks west coast/ freo game in box seat for semi.... which could also be played in perth... reckon both teams wce @ 9 and freo @ 13 are good value for NAB cup.

There you go.
In all my excitement I ejaculated prematurely.Had I lasted a bit longer I would have seen what Brisbane have decided to put on the paddock.
Still reckon they will win,but would have preferred a shade of black price rather than the shade of red I took.The preferred bet would then have been a straight out Double with Brisbane and the Bulldogs for $40.My assessed double Price $1.90 - Available - $2.50

Latest modifications to Margins

Brisbane - Fielding very poor team minus 12
Melbourne - Worse field than I thought minus 4
Melbourne - Play well against the Bulldogs plus 8
West Coast - Cousin's midnight dash minus 3
West Coast - Some essential players missing minus 5
West Coast - Subiaco advantage plus 8
Fremantle - Don't do all that well pre-season minus 5
Richmond - because I hate Richmond minus 6
Port Power - Tredrea appointed Captain plus 6
Adelaide - Been spanking Port lately plus 8
Sydney - a player or two missing? OMG! minus 8
Sydney - dismal recent record pre-season minus 3
Collingwood - Expect them to perform for fans plus 6

Brisbane Essendon - 10 $1.63 $2.60
Bulldogs Melbourne - 38 $1.17 $6.75
Sydney Kangaroos - 2 $1.91 $2.10
Richmond Hawthorn - 14 $1.52 $2.90
Geelong Carlton - 45 $1.12 $8.90
Adelaide Port Power - 12 $1.57 $2.70
St.Kilda Collingwood - 41 $1.15 $7.60
West Coast Fremantle - 29 $1.26 $4.80

Excellent Question

What it means is he is a GREAT MAN.
And GREAT MEN achieve more than not great men.

Thank you for your question Mad.
And by the way Mad,You not the only one.