I thought we might be able to keep same thread going for whole test series.. might be good to look back on early observations etc .

Anyway cricketbet have early market posted as follows for 1st test:

South Africa Draw Australia

3.90 3.00 2.15 105.5%

This will be updated to a lower % closer to game starting, but as some of you would have noticed , i am a huge believer in taking value and laying off for profit later on
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I would think that South Africa are the value in this market, even if australia win they tend to get out in price as test match goes on and unless rain intervenes i dont think a draw is on cards

Will have to wait and see what the pitch is like and the result of the toss. It looks like Australia will possibly play 2 spinners and if that's the case and they win the toss on a turning pitch, they would be favoured. If they lost the toss however, they could be in for a LONG stint out in the middle with no Glenn McGrath. Still can not believe they chose Clark in this squad instead of Bracken who would have been ideal.

Not sure about Bracken sportz... i think one day bowling has taken away his abilities in longer version, players will just pick him off as imo he doesnt bowl wicket taking balls, more often players get out trying to force pace against him in ODI.Dont need to take risks in tests.

Interesting to hear Jamie Cox say on Inside cricket that when TAS plays NSW they are happy to see Bracken in NSW team rather than Bollinger!!

Aussies are paying price of not picking best test team for last ten odd years.now cupboard is not as full with ready made players.

eg Muller,Hauritz etc all this talk about the future, what about the best team now !! Kaspa and Bichel two stand outs who havent got big enough go IMO

Well, as far as I'm concerned, Bracken's far better than Clark. I do agree that he's more important for the one day team than the test team though.

Symonds is over there as an all rounder, which is a bit stupid really, as he still hasn't proven himself with the bat and his bowling is just handy. After his performances in the past couple of tests, he deserves a bit more of a go though. Meanwhile, Bichel's batting has improved dramatically over the last couple of years and he's a frontline bowler. If you go purely on facts and figures from this year's Pura Cup (449 runs at 37 & 45 wickets at 26), he's the best all rounder in Australia!!! But he's obviously never going to play for Australia again.

I assume the 1st test team will be:

Langer
Hayden
Ponting
Hussey
Clarke or Martyn
symonds
Gilchrist
Warne
Lee
Kasprowicz or Tait
MacGill

http://content-aus.cricinfo.com/aus...ory/240642.html

Arthur tips two spinners for Cape Town
Cricinfo staff
March 14, 2006

Mickey Arthur, the South Africa coach, predicts Australia will play two spinners in Thursday's first Test in a selection adding pressure to Andrew Symonds's role as first-change bowler. South Africa's attack is expected to be dominated by pace and Arthur told AAP he hoped the pitch at Cape Town would suit his seamers Andre Nel, Makhaya Ntini and Shaun Pollock.

"I don't think it's any secret we are looking for wickets with a little bit of grass in it," Arthur said. "We want to try and negate the Shane Warne and Stuart MacGill factor, so it will be interesting to see what type of deck we actually get here. I do think [Australia will] play two spinners."

Arthur said if the surfaces suited pace and Australia chose both slow men it would increase Symonds's workload. "It will be quite interesting because then that third seamer will become really important," he said. "That will be a very interesting selection." Symonds bowled well against South Africa in the Melbourne and Sydney Tests during Australia's 2-0 series win, but he is still inexperienced as an international allrounder with only eight wickets in seven matches.

Arthur raised an eyebrow when the Australia selectors sent Nathan Bracken home after the one-day series and opted for the bowling options of Michael Kasprowicz, Stuart Clark and Shaun Tait behind Brett Lee. "I really think Bracken is a good bowler," Arthur said. "That actually surprises us."

When Arthur was asked if the one-wicket loss on Sunday would rock Australia's Test preparations he said: "I think it could. [But] whenever we seem to have Australia down they come back fighting. It is a very, very tough side to beat."

© Cricinfo

I think it will be a risk to play tait and lee as the only genuine pace bowlers, considering they are both super quick yet inconsistent, and don't offer much variety between them

Clarke and Martyn will be an intersting one. I think the selectors still see clarke as a future captain, so i think they might go with him

It depends. It's a strange enough decision to pick Martyn in the first place, but it would be REALLY strange to bring him back into the squad if they're not thinking of actually playing him. They may be thinking of simply putting him in at number 4 in a straight swap with Hodge. I don't think they like Clarke at number 4. I don't either, but I think Hussey would be a great number 4.

Yes, I agree. If they go with 2 spinners, they'll probably choose Kasprowicz. They could possibly still go with 3 pacemen and leave MacGill out though.

looks like 2 spinners and 2 quicks are the go... makes winning toss and batting super important ... to state the obvious .

yeah, if aus win the toss, i'll be backing them, if sith ifrica win, then i might go draw....