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#11
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Hi Ode.
I agree with you there, no matter what approach one has. there has to be a cut off point , otherwise, one is made for you . Cheers.
__________________
Cheers. |
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#12
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Hi all
As a newbie here & after reading some threads i gotta say...compared to other forum sites that seem to have a 'gang mentality' its refreshing to finally find an open forum where ideas can be tossed around without ridicule. Nice 1. I have a system of my own that works well enough over many years but am always looking to run a comparision next to it with regards to improvement. I run at around 4% on anywhere between $10k - $15k per week depending on work commitments place betting. Keep up the good work. Again >> very refreshing |
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#13
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King Cugat, I'm really into place betting and have a couple of plans that have been successful so far, the thing that holds me back really, is working on such a slim %, the situation can change dramatically with a bad run, it sure takes some gaul to keep going sometimes. Thankfully it's always come good again.
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#14
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sorry to be a (dare I say it?) "partypooper" but ran this over a set of results for a place system of mine at 874 bets the end result was a loss of .o4%, which oddly enough was exactly the same as the level stakes loss??
maybe there is a lesson there? There was a total of 5067 units bet using the ladder staking, which means there was an *average* bet of 5.804 units on 874 selections. So unfortunately bags, this looks pretty conclusive. By the way we got to bet 20 10 times, bet 19 once, and bet 17 once. The longest losing sequence was 7 ( once) |
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#15
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Quote:
lol, lol Hardly anybody posts here anymore, that's why! |
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#16
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Party.....
Excellent work. I have a strong belief that a good system must use unit for unit betting before, then going on with more exotic methods to further your profit on outlay. This of course means your selection process plays the number #1 part which i also believe most punters ignore, going straight to the 'betting method' to try & make up for poor selection technique. Ive used many plans against my own and always come back to my original staking method. I run an excell sheet with auto-summed colums to cut right down on the manual data. I bet 5% of the total pool which is updated after every race. This automatically allows me to bet up on winning runs and bet down on losing runs. The data is set and theres no person feelings involved. Now as ive already said my selection process allows me to do this as on a unit to unit basis i know i cant lose in the long run. The fact i have confidence in my selection process is the key. I dont have to rely on bringing in a risky betting method to try & make up for a dodgy selection method. Ive run on around a 4-4.5% margin for a few years now place betting. This recent E.I. situation has been running around 3.5-4% though. My unit for unit plan does not work on TAB payouts, it infact runs very close to evens. I rely on best of 2 totes or tab +5% etc from the private agencies. I ran comparisions for a long time and found the equivalent of $1.50 TAB ave was atleast $1.58 from the privates. Theres my profits there. Soooooooo.....for what its worth. If your someonewho is constantly looking for betting strategies to get you in front i really think you need to go back & concentrate on your selection process. A good betting plan will only ever cover up a poor selection method and it will always catch up with you in the end. |
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#17
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King, Well yes, ....that's what I was trying to say without being to hard on bags.
So in the instance that I depicted, basically breaking even (always betting at best tote) doesn't matter how you muck around with staking plans you will always break even in the end. Over a long, long period of time you would have had so many bets at 1 unit, so many @2 units, so many at 3 units etc etc etc all on selections that "break even" ........... so the end result will be "break even" |
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#18
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Hi Party ,
Those figures look very intesting. Too bad about that staking plan. Maybe there is a more suitable one floating around out there. Cheers.
__________________
Cheers. |
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#19
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Bags, yes it looked interesting at first , but the more data that I applied it to the more it fell flat, we'll keep looking though won't we?
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#20
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Quote:
197 bets 90 places 45.68% S/R average price $2.47 for all runners. level stakes 5.2 units profit 2.6% POT 1 to 20 plan 66.81 profit 6.11% POT hit 20 two times (1st time was a 7 unit lose, 2nd 86 unit lose) All bets have been on betfair, using tab prices would be in the red. |
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