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  #11  
Old 1st October 2003, 11:19 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
On 2003-09-16 16:28, Chrome Prince wrote:
Someone mentioned this in a thread recently, and I can't seem to find it, so apologies to the author.

Here are some stats on a small sample of races. I'll add to it later.

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 35
Winners: 8
Strike Rate: 22.86%
Profit: $4.80 (TAB prices)
POT: 13.71%
Average Dividend $4.90


An update on results:
METRO TRACKS ONLY
Selections: 41
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 21.95%
Profit: $1.70 (TAB prices)
POT: 4.15%
Average Dividend $4.74

Last winner:
24/9/03 Eagle Farm MASINDOR $2.90

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  #12  
Old 13th October 2003, 11:35 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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TOPWEIGHT IN WELTER UPDATE

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 43
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 20.93%
Profit: -$0.30 (TAB prices)
POT: -0.70%
Average Dividend $4.74

Taken a bit of a dive lately as suggested by other posters.
I would like to add additional filters to this, but the small sample size is dangerous.
Will wait until I have at least 100 races before adding any further rules.
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  #13  
Old 28th October 2003, 08:43 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Update:

Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight.

Selections: 46
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 19.57%
Profit: -$3.30 (TAB prices)
POT: -7.17%
Average Dividend $4.74

Taken a steep dive for the worse, so I'm going to add an additional rule which is must have won at the track.

I realise this is retrofitted but the extra rule is logically sound.

Amended Rules
Welter races
Back the topweight
Must have won at the track.

Selections: 5
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 60.00%
Profit: $2.10 (TAB prices)
POT: 42.00%
Average Dividend $2.37

Interesting to monitor this for a while.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 426,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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