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#11
29th December 2007, 08:39 PM
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genious.........against what most would go for,
but, for now .......genious 
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#12
30th December 2007, 12:46 PM
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canberra 1st race
#3 red captive- 1st- ......2nd start layoff july. and it rolls on. got 5/1 up here in the states.
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#13
30th December 2007, 04:22 PM
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canberra
1st race- #3 red captive- 1st-............2nd start layoff july 3rd race- #1 hyson green- 2nd- .........1st start layoff july 5th race- #6 hurtful- 1st- .................1st start layoff may .............#4 beau secret- 2nd-...........2nd start layoff august .............#3 roly dancer- 3rd- ...........2nd start layoff july 6th race- #1 power stitch- 1st- .........1st start layoff august ..............#4 ciro- 2nd-.....................1st start layoff june 7th race- #3 croation prince- 3rd- ......2nd run layoff july.....this race killed me- approach the bench to good for my fresh horse picks#2,#5 and #7.broke track record for 1400. ouch! lets keep this going tomorrow and the next day and the next day and the next day. this wont last forever.
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#14
30th December 2007, 07:07 PM
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Dear PharfromOz,
Ok, I've arrived in Darwin, scratch the holiday for a bit, let me get down to work... I am very interested in what you are doing as it is a winning formula, laying rnners when their real chance of winning is less than what their price offers is a ticket to success... Any maths genius would agree.. I have a couple of questions though... Firstly, on Betfair, as with most markets there are distinct groups of runners, those in the market and those out of the market.. Trying to lay ones out of the market at reasonable odds is damm near impossible and many don't attract any bets at all... (this is where bookies clean up when the win) So I gather taht the runners you are laying, are ones more or less in the market where there is adequate investments to allow you to lay at a reasonable price.. Could you give me some idea as to what your market cut off point would be, say $4, or $5 or more? I've tried laying runners out to $10 and it only returns a dribble and ouch it hurts when they win. Second Question In your experience, what would be a reasonable relationship between your "bet to lose figure" for each race and the bank you have in reserve? For example if I was to "bet to lose $100" what sort of bank should I allocate to cover those times when a number of rotters get up and win on you? Do you have any statictic's regarding your activities? I believe I might be able to automate the selection process based on what you've outlined so far, which means that you dont need to pour over form for hours before a meeting..(I'm a programmer, I didnt tell you that) Perhaps you'd like to talk to me privately about this so you can email me at OzPUnter@gmail.com.. ( I do look at that email box guys... Promise) even though I have been slow answering it before.. I will be looking at it daily over the next couple of weeks as it's plastered right in front of me on my laptops desktop. Cheers PharfromOz, hope to hear from you soon. Last edited by Punter4211 : 30th December 2007 at 07:11 PM.
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#15
30th December 2007, 08:09 PM
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Quote:
saturday http://www.australianracing.com/ind...70§ion_id=1 friday http://www.australianracing.com/ind...69§ion_id=1
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#16
31st December 2007, 10:15 AM
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Hi Pharfromoz,
I woke up this morning at 3am... Wide awake with one thought in my mind.. Oh poo - Dammm... The email address is ozpunter01@gmail.com not theone I gave you... Sorry about that.. I'll be doing some research today... I'll see you later then. OzPunter
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#17
31st December 2007, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
How do you [accurately] work that out?
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#18
31st December 2007, 03:02 PM
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Quote:
If there are 10 balls in a barrel the odds of any one being drawn (from the ten) is 1 in ten or 9-1 ($10.00 in the new money) if the odds are $11.00 you will make money on average.. The profit on return is greater than the cost of the losses.. so you'll make money... That's why TAB punters must lose because they are betting into a 120% market. Why am I trying to explain this to you crash? You probably know more about it than I do... Anyway I think PharfromOz has his wits about him and has come up with something really positive, even if he dosent realize it's potential as yet, and I agree with an earlier comment, that it wont last, but I believe that if you can capture the essence of what he's doing you can profit from it long term... My email is ozpunter01@gmail.com... stay tuned... OzPunter (on hols in Darwin)
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#19
31st December 2007, 05:01 PM
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Just pointing out a bit of reality here, not trying to rev anyone up. Balls in a barrel don't really cut it as an answer. Perhaps PharfromOz can answer the question maybe?
Anyone who can accurately decide what chance a horse has of winning or losing, has a license to print money. Baring hindsight, there are just too many unknown factors involved in horse racing to do it successfully without a crystal ball. Last edited by crash : 31st December 2007 at 05:03 PM.
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#20
31st December 2007, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
However with can aproximate and generalise, to that end using sensible assesments we can group runners into those with a serious winning chance and those with little or none. From PharFromOz's point of view it is easier to lose a race than to win it, and some runners with tell tale characteristics fall into a general group of losers, which turns our attention to the price on offer. If the price on offer is shorter than their realistic odds they offer a good lay prospect, and if more lose than win, you can make a profit long term. I'm not talking about winning every race, just those that offer the right instances.. By being selective I believe the PharfromOz has taken a very professional approach. You would know that all he is doing is exactly what bookmakers the world over do and TAB's and Poker Mackines are just computerised ways of doing the same thing. There are many opportunities every week where prices offered for some runners are serious bad value, by laying these you must be in winning territory.. Ozpunter Last edited by Punter4211 : 31st December 2007 at 05:17 PM.
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