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  #11  
Old 31st December 2007, 11:58 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Stugots, you are most welcome.

Hi Iomaca,
I see what the querie relates to now.
I did some research on this question of horse position in the pre-post market & found that the horse that is the 5th mentioned horse in the pre-post market , had the lowest LOT out of all the rankings in the pre-post including the pre-post fav. which was the 2nd lowest LOT.
Some of the run of outs were 30+ but managed to jag the odd very high payer.
As a point of interest , the LOT was less backing all first 5 in the pre-post, same amount on each, than it was backing just the pre-post Fav. on its own.

Hi Burrah,
One has to work out the combined percentage not the combined price.
What one has to do is work out the percentage price to see if it falls in the 50% range .
One way of doing this manually is divide say
1 divided by $2.88 (press %)= 34.7%
1 divided by $$5.30 ...........= 18.9%
Total 53.5%

Now change Fav from $2.88 to say $3.25
1 divided by $3.25 = 30.7%
1 divided by $5.30 = 18.9%
Total 49.6%

What I suggest, if Dutch betting is increase the price of the Fav so that the book percentage lowers down to say 50% e.g. change the $2.88 to $3.25
then place that amount on the $2.88 as if it were $3.25
Can you say what process or tool you use to calculate & place the bet into the market.
I am guessing that you are useing Betfair, using one of the bet placement tools to calculate the percentage & place the bet, if so , place the bet at say $3.25 which wont get matched , then go back into it & lower its price to make it get accepted.
What you will find is the amount stays the same & the Fav is now being used as sort of a saver .
You will either make a bit or loose a bit if the fave gets up, but clean up if the other horse gets up for you.

This is a strong way of dealing with a race where there is an odds-on fav of the 2 horses where one feels the fav has half a chance of falling over.

Another way is to only target races where there is a $3.20 fav in the race.

Here is a progression plan one may like to try with Dutch betting.
Outlay per race- 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ect.
Create a bank to go 30 bets = $620
Go up the ladder win loose or draw until one has any profit, then start again.
One needs approx. 50% SR to make this work.

Cheers.



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  #12  
Old 31st December 2007, 12:20 PM
burrah burrah is offline
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Thanks AP, does it matter that the 2nd example was bet to a level stake rather than dutched?
Regards
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  #13  
Old 31st December 2007, 12:29 PM
burrah burrah is offline
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Bhagwan, many thanks. It will take me many hours to works out the different scenarios. I use Betting assistant but also have Bet Trader Pro (free)
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  #14  
Old 31st December 2007, 12:37 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrah
Thanks AP, does it matter that the 2nd example was bet to a level stake rather than dutched?
Regards


I think the principle is pretty much the same. You're diluting the odds of each selection by backing more than one runner in the race.
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Last edited by AngryPixie : 31st December 2007 at 12:41 PM.
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