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#21
31st December 2007, 06:28 PM
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Hi PharFromOz an Crash,
First question, how much value do you place on a recent Trial run?... Now I know that hard racing is the only real way to get a horse fully fit and there are also runners that perform well with little or no preperation but when you see that a runner has had two maybe three trail runs and say that ran well, and also consider the quality of stable they are coming from, how much importance should be placed on average to better Trial runs? Second question, can I get your opinion on the following runners, before they run on Sat.. The first date is their last start and the second is when they trialed recently Race 1 STAR CITY HANDICAP Maiden Hcp 1200Mtrs 1 ASTRONOMICAL Carrying 58.00 Wednesday, 2 May 2007 4 SILKEN APPEAL Saturday, 30 June 2007 Wednesday, 26 December 2007 6 DIESEL FORCE Monday, 12 March 2007 Wednesday, 26 December 2007 7 FRENCHS FOREST Wednesday, 26 December 2007 Race 3 TATTERSALLS CLUB SPRINT 3Y C&G 0 - 71 1100Mtrs CG Last 1 CIGAR ROYALE 59.00 Saturday, 14 April 2007 3 BRUNEI TALE 58.00 Monday, 17 December 2007 4 SUBORDINATE (NZ) Monday, 11 June 2007 Sunday, 30 December 2007 5 COLT FORTYFIVE 7 YANKEE CLIPPER Tuesday, 18 December 2007 Race 4 SCHWEPPES HANDICAP F&M 0 - 76 1400Mtrs 1 DOUBLE ELLE (NZ) 59.00 Saturday, 18 August 2007 Friday, 28 December 2007 Race 5 BLUES POINT HOTEL HCP 0 - 93 1200Mtrs 1 CAPE BRETON (NZ) Wednesday, 25 April 2007 Tuesday, 21 August 2007 3 GEIGERON Saturday, 4 August 2007 Monday, 17 December 2007 5 KINCHARM (NZ) Saturday, 18 August 2007 Race 6 CARRINGTON STAKES CARRINGTON 1100Mtrs 2 BISCAYNE BAY Saturday, 15 September 2007 4 FOX LAKE Saturday, 30 December 2006 Saturday, 26 May 2007 6 REAL STRIKE Tuesday, 28 August 2007 Monday, 17 December 2007 9 ROSECUTTER Saturday, 18 August 2007 Wednesday, 28 November 2007 10 SHEEZVALUE (NZ) Wednesday, 3 October 2007 Race 7 SPORTSMAN HANDICAP C C 1400Mtrs 6 ALHAAJES (USA) Friday, 27 July 2007 Friday, 28 December 2007 9 PORTIMAO Race 8 HYLAND RACE COLOURS HCP 3Y F 0 - 71 1100Mtrs 3 BEYONCE'S STAR 58.00 Saturday, 18 August 2007 Monday, 17 December 2007 4 TUCHUZY 58.00 Thursday, 23 August 2007 Tuesday, 18 September 2007 8 FILLE MAJESTIQUE Saturday, 21 July 2007 10 ROSE OF CIMMARON Thursday, 17 May 2007 Lets see what happens... It all depends on what sort of lay price you can obtain OzPunter 
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#22
1st January 2008, 08:02 AM
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Ozpunter,
Yes, I agree with your previous post on page 2. There are lots of exceptions to horses running to form [longshots get up regularly], but the law of averages should be on PharFromOz method's side. Not sure who you are addressing in your above post [both?], but I'll answer your first question. Regarding how much value I put on recent trials, well I'm usually very wary of them. I backed a horse last Sat. because it was from a very good stable that is performing well at the moment. The horse had won a recent 900m trial by over 5 lengths, but come race day it did nothing! Some horses do well at trials and others don't. How they perform in a race though can be anyones guess and it's next race after a trial is often not the one it's being set to win ! I generally rate a horse on past form etc. and ignore trials results. Other punters might get something out of them though. Last edited by crash : 1st January 2008 at 08:09 AM.
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#23
1st January 2008, 09:00 AM
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I agree Crash,
I usually put trainers into two categories, those who know what they are doing and those that dont.. When I see a horse coming back to racing in trials and their from a good stable I go looking for the race/s that they may be set for... Then I check to see if they are a first up specialist Othewise, it's just an exercise run.. Ozpunter
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#24
1st January 2008, 09:06 AM
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in post #6 i talked shortly about the layoff runners. but i was looking at it as maybe those horses were effected by the quarantines or something having to do with the outbreak in new south wales. caught a trend were these horses coming back fresh and winning against horses that were running all summer(your summer) or having 3 or more races. i was seeing horses that had great debuts being put aside and coming back and crushing. heard a track announcer that was wondering why a trainer had kept a horse away from the track for so long after a great debut. it was strange that he couldnt put things together.
really i just saw a trend and ran with it and it been successful so far.you guys are in australia maybe you guys can tweak it even more.im looking at a map to find out what tracks were affected in the area. but im riding it till the end. where betting is concerned i dont bet with scared money. i have a good eye for physical appearance on horses,i look at the favorite and compare him to his previous runs and if i thin he/she will fail i unload from anywhere 1 to three horses to win. 1 horse ill go wp if he is big odds ill gow wps. if im betting two horses and one is a longshot ill go win on the non longshot and win/show on the longshot. i adjust accoring to the post time odds. sometimes it hurts me because here in the u.s. ill see horses drop from 9/1 to 5/2 after crossing the wire. just a gamble im will to take. Last edited by pharfromoz : 1st January 2008 at 09:14 AM.
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#25
1st January 2008, 06:13 PM
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Dear PharFromOz,
I had a good look at you concept on Randwick today, new years day. I'm pleased to say I didn't strike any winners (save one race with 4 runners) but I have a few reservations. Firstly the odds of these runnes are quite long, and if one got up I'd have a strugle to recover... The other thing is that on Betfair its hard to get layed on a the lesser chances. The only way you can be sure to get a lay is to accept the sometimes outrageous odds on offer... e.g. A runner could have a back price of $6 and a lay price of $25 + How do you get around this problem? Otherwise I think that with refinement it has real potential, but like i say, lookout for the long odds that get up.. There were a few today that got a place, so close is not good enough, but scary just the same.. I think its a stroke of genious, PharFromOz, all it needs is refinement and I'm sure I could automate it so that there is no need to pour over form to find the last starts etc. (of course you'd need acess to my 50k+ record database) You're in my book as one thinking punter.. Keep up the good work. And a happy and surely prosperous new year.. One obvious refinement, (before Crash chimes in) is that you dont have to bet on everything.. By being super selective you might get down to one bet a day or even every other day.. If you make it a reasonable sized bet you can see an meaningful return being reliased... Happy new year EVERYBODY ! OzPunter Last edited by Punter4211 : 1st January 2008 at 06:22 PM.
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#26
8th January 2008, 02:03 PM
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can the fresh horses do it tonight at musswellbrook?
just nailed the 2nd race. had wins on #1 secret dane,#5 somemagic and #7 little topar. #1 secret dane ran away at 9/1. #5 somemagic- 4th #7 little topar late scratch at gate can someone tell me where stawell is located.
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#27
8th January 2008, 02:05 PM
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#28
8th January 2008, 02:05 PM
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Quote:
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#29
8th January 2008, 02:09 PM
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speaking of horses that put in a good debut and i havent seen since
Steel Giant. 1st start i think it broke the track or class record, down Canberra way, from memory.......anybody? s'ok i looked up barrier trails >>> had one 30th Dec. This might be a hot one >> Steel Giant Last edited by King Cugat : 8th January 2008 at 02:12 PM.
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#30
8th January 2008, 02:21 PM
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muswellbrook 3rd- #3 magenta shores
......................... #5 regal academy ......................... #11 present ahms beat the favorite.
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