Even though yesterday was a losing day of $0.80 each on both win and place betting it did not fail.

There were 13 selections for 4 winners and 8 placegetters.

There is one selection today:
Mildura R1 no.4 - Samadji. ($1.40 pre-post).

Yesterday's sole selection won paying a disappointing $1.30 and $1.04.

Today's selections:
Kembla R1 no.1 - Atlantic Air
Kembla R2 no.5 - Elastane
Kembla R4 no.1 - Validated
Kyneton R3 no.4 - Road Novel
Muswellbrook R2 no.1 - Scotch Gem
Muswellbrook R4 no.6 - Ray.

I'm changing the rules by adding the DIST algorithym. Looking at the past three days this would have reduced the selections but both Win and Place brtting would be in profit, so I'll give it a go. If it fails its then back to the drawing board...

Today's selections:
Gosford R1 no.1 - Antrim Road.
Eagle Farn R8 no.6 - Ana Me Cori
Sandown R4 no.1 - Filou Shot

From yesterday's 3 selections there was one winner of $3.90 and two placegetters paying $3.00.

Today's selections:
Ballarat R1 no.1 - Bugatti Royale
Ballarat R3 no.1 - Belong To Peri.

After a scratching there was one selection yesterday - it won paying $3.60 and $2.30.

One selection today:
Goulburn R1 no.14 - Pure Nikki


The below would have been a selection but I have omitted it because it won its past two starts:
Pt Macquarie R4 no.2 - Amboise.

michael,


Just a suggestion when you are trialling systems. You need to take into account how likely the current results are due to luck. to do this simply just keep a record of the number of expected winners. This is easy to do as it is the sum of 1/price.

For example if you had 3 horses at odds at $3.00 ,$2.00 and $2.50 you would add up 1/3.00 + 1/2.00 + 1/2.50 = 1.23

This means 1.23 winners were expected in those 3 bets. If you do this for over 50 bets it will start to be more meaningful. You can then run a chi square test to work out if it is base don luck or not.

If you not sure how to run a chi square test or can't be bothered then a general principle is that you need at least 1.5 times winners then the expected winners. For example if the expected winners are 15 after 50 bets then you are doing ok if you have hit at least 23 winners in the 50 bets. This is just a rough guide and the chi square test is a better indicator.

The good thing about this is it helps remove faulty profits which are due to luck. For example after 50 bets I might be showing a profit of 10% ($55 returned) but if the return came from 2 winners ( $25 and $30 ) and the expected winners are 10 then I know that this profit is purely based on luck.

Hope that helps you out ...

Good Luck.

Hi, Wesmip1.

I may be wrong but the Chi method explained in your posting seems to refer to "good" luck.

If this is the case, how do you then factor in to a system where only bad luck beats your horse?

Maybe it comes down to the swings and roundabouts scenario, or am I reading it wrong?

Cheers.
Michael.

michael,

Without going into an essay on it I will try and explain it.

The chi square does not take into account just the winners it takes into account the number of losers as well. What I posted was a simple quick test (not the chi square test).

An easy way to do it has been posted by AngryPixie in a previous thread. Its easy to do in excel. In cell A1 put the number of winners, in cell A2 put the number of losers (not races but races minus winners), in cell A3 put the expected number of winners (sum of 1/price) and in cell A4 put the expected number of losers (races minus expected winners).

Then in another cell (lets say B1) put in the formula

=CHITEST(A1:A2,A3:A4)

It will come out with a probability for you. Most people adjust the prices to a true 100% market but it isn't necessary. You are looking for a number less than 1% in order to know whether the system is a winner or loser. Anything higher than 10% is regarded as being heavily affected by random noise (good or bad luck).

Good Luck.

Michael,
Here is an example to help you out that is familiar to you:

These are your selections up until you changed the selection criteria in this thread along with the prices from unitab.

Kembla R1 no.1 - Atlantic Air = $3.40
Kembla R2 no.5 - Elastane = $9.10
Kyneton R3 no.4 - Road Novel = $3.20
Muswellbrook R2 no.1 - Scotch Gem = $2.70
Muswellbrook R4 no.6 - Ray. = $4.20
Mildura R1 no.4 - Samadji. ($1.40 pre-post). = $1.30
Casterton R2 no.6 - Portland Prophet = $2.30
Casterton R3 no.1 - Pasco = $2.10
Casterton R4 no.6 - Jarraconi = $3.20
Cranbourne R3 no.10 - Happy Honey = $8.60
Hobart R1 no.16 - aaaaa's Jubilee = $6.80
Hobart R3 no.6 - Special Resolution = $3.10
Kalgoorlie R1 no.3 - Voodoo Rocking = $1.80
Kalgoorlie R4 no.5 - Daughter's Demand = $6.80
Sun Coast R9 no.1 - Mystic Vibe = $2.90
Tamworth R3 no.3 - Katobar = $7.00
Tamworth 8 no.1 - Sir Winalot = $3.60
Taree R4 no.1 - Barons Court = $1.70
Rosehill R5 no.1 - Nuclear Sky = $3.90
Eagle Farm R6 no.1 - Rampant Lion = $4.20
Morphetville R5 no.1 - El Maze = $4.50
Morphetville R7 no.6 - Magical Dane = $4.30
Moonee Valley R3 no.8 - Sand Sweeper = $2.40
Moonee Valley R6 no.3 - Innovation = $8.30
Moonee Valley R7 no.1 - Gunfire Messiah = $3.50
Benalla R1 no.8 - Moon Maiden = $3.80
Gold Coast R4 no.2 - Showciti = $2.30
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Agrios = $6.20
Toowoomba R1 no.1 - Golden Flute = $2.00
Toowoomba R3 no.5 - Azzaland = $1.50
Belmont R1 no.2 - Superscenic = $1.60
Belmont R7 no.3 - Chachi. = $2.20
Bendigo R2 no.3 - De Mars. = $3.30
Ipswich R1 no.1 - Spectacular Pic = $7.60
Ipswich R5 no.2 - Norse Code = $3.30
Ipswich R6 no.1 - Simplest = $2.30
Ipswich R7 no.5 - Jellicles = $1.40
Ipswich R8 no.3 - Jackpot = $5.10
Mackay R4 no.1 - = $3.00
Seymour R5 no.2 - = $4.20
Seymour R7 no.1 - = $13.00

Total number of winners = 14
Expected winners (sum of 1/price) = 13.57

CHI SQUARE RESULT = 88% chance that the results were due to luck.

Based on that there is no reason to either keep or throw away the system Its still an unknown.

Hope that helps you out ....

Good Luck

I understand it now. It's quite intriguing.

Unfortunately I know little about computers and am unfamiliar with Excel even though I hear/read of it quite often.

If the system is still in profit after about 50 selections I will calculate it manually as shown in your previous post. I suppose it can also be applied to Place betting?