Cameron,
25 losses in a row, depending on the duration of that streak occuring, question goes begging to the selection method ?

I agree Puntz - average win dividend is $9.00 though which seems to help greatly.

Cameron,

There is a "losing streak simulator" available on the net where you can put in your strike rate and get a simulation of how often you will have a losing streak of each length. Work a look:

http://mailer.today.com.au/fairfax/users/sidsid

Also you may like to have a look at a topic from some time ago which also discussed losing streaks:

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=2558&forum=7

Cameron, so far you are still a step ahead in this string.Very good pointers in those url's.
Once you agknowledge there is going to be a streak, then it's past the stats.I think the stats. show is does happen. Good.
Once one aknowledges something, in this case, the losing streak, what's next, is it strategy or improve on selection method. And it will still exist.
Therefore, set gaols to at least re-coup your initial investment.
Gee, all or most have read it somewhere, Discipline, what else ? The first racing book I read, first words were just that, Discipline.



[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-10-28 15:27 ]

Well Puntz, here is one possible answer to the "next step". The next step is to compare the losses on the losing streaks against the profits made on good days and see how it all finishes up.

Lets say we have to survive for 8 to 10 days to make enough profits to cover a 30 plus (an approximate $1500) losing streak. Set the rule to stop at $1500 outlay lost.

What sort of strike rate would be required then to theoretically survive? Goodness this is getting complicated. But we all LOVE it I know hehe

Thanks for the link to the losing streak simulator Bhagwan. I think it confused me a little with the two columns of results though. Can you please explain this for me?

So once again to play with examples say over about 1000 bets we see a result of one losing streak greater than 30bets or $1500 so we cop the loss. On the other good days we make $8,000 clear profit.

Stats say that we should have had more than one 30+ losing streak over 1000 races.

Based upon the above tho In theory that means we could have still made a profit after suffering 3 or 4 incidences of 30+ losing streaks.

Am I on the right track here?

[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2003-10-28 15:29 ]

Cameron,
I re-read this post.
There are days you say you make 8000.00 on a day. Is this Win bets or a combination of multiple types of betting?

If it's multiple, then which particular type of betting are you exempling, Win only or whatever.
If it's a Win only type of bet,s then here goes:
On a day where you make 8000.00, somewhere from there you are expecting a ,losing streak of 30, or wait till you lose 1500.00
If you made 8000.00, then keep going till you think the loosing streak will reoccur.
or, when you lose that 1500.00 limit you mention.
On 1000 races, how many days on average do you bet on, 1000 per day, or week ?
Cos 8000.00 per day * 7 days = lots !

My quote from earlier "So once again to play with examples say over about 1000 bets we see a result of one losing streak greater than 30bets or $1500 so we cop the loss. On the other good days we make $8,000 clear profit."

Apologies for the ambiguity Puntz - I re-read it myself and see now where the confusion is. What I meant to express was that over 1,000 bets I observed one only losing streak of over 30 bets which cost $1,500 as a loss. The other 970 bets resulted in a clear profit of $8,000 whcih after you deduct $1,500 loss is still a nice profit of $6,500.

Having said all that - I added that you could suffer 3 to 4 lots of $1500 losses and still be in front by a reasonable figure.

I am still confused as to how to read the stats on the "losing streak calculator" for a 9% strike rate. Here are the figures

I tried to insert the figures here but could not get them to format right - so u will have to look at the link provided by Bhagwan to see what I mean.

Hey $8,000 a day would be nice hehe


[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2003-10-29 22:52 ]

[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2003-10-29 22:54 ]

[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2003-10-29 22:56 ]

So 970 bets for a profit of 8000.
What would the total dollar amount be if it lost 30 bets ?
No need to answer, but if you stop short at 1500.00, cop it sweet, I think it should see you thru. if ya have figures of 8000.00

If I had the stuff to do this, I would look at a graph and find it's peak Gross profit per day, then be satisfied with an average.




[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-10-29 23:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-10-29 23:53 ]

Cameron,

In that losing streak simulator the first column is the length of losing streak (so 0 means you won on the first bet, 1=won with the 2nd bet, etc). Second column is the number if times it happened during the simulation and the last column is the number of times you EXPECT that losing streak to happen mathematically. I wouldn't worry too much about this last column as it can be a bit confusing if you are not used to probability analysis.

Plugging in a 9% strike rate and running a simulation I got these values for the large losing streaks:
26=1
27=2
30=2
31=1
33=2
29=1
46=1

Now if you decide that you are going to cut your losses at 30 then in this simulation you would have had to do this 7 times (2+1+2+1+1) as there were 7 streaks of 30 OR MORE. So if you projected profit for the 1000 bets is $8000 LESS $1500 for each losing streak you would have lost $2500 overall as the 7 losing streaks cost you $10500.

Hope this helps to clarify it.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Thanks Becareful, thats the clarification I am seeking. The numbers do not look that good when framed mathematically. So a series of 1000 bets where only one 30 plus losing streak reared its ugly head would appeare to be "pure ass" !!!! Again, not want I want to hear, but necessary to digest.