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  #11  
Old 10th September 2008, 03:29 PM
crash crash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Crash, this just stood out to me, I'm not having a swipe at you at all.

I would avoid 2yo's backing up quickly, they don't handle the pressure of a lot of racing.

If we eliminate 2yo's and look at other horses who won their last start within 7 days and are favourite this start, we come up with a 2.57% win POT at just TAB prices, and only a 2.23% place LOT at TAB prices.

If we do the same, where the last start was on a Heavy track, we get 73.33% Win POT and 21.56% Place POT.

For Slow, 20.43% win POT and 3.76% place POT.

Just eliminate Colts and Fillies and you wind up making money.

Sorry if it seems I'm always correcting you, the data is just sitting in front of me is the only reason I responded.


Nothing wrong with disagreeing or presenting a different point of view Chrome. My point of view was [obviously] not based on stats. but a part of my approach to form study regarding 'horse fitness' that was relevant to this thread and works for me. I don't feel 'corrected' at all, so no need to apologize.

You can run data about variables 100's of different ways that will [on paper] come with winning percentages. Winning stats. based on past SP favorites don't work in the real world because it's just not possible to always pick and back the SP favorite correctly.
Last edited by crash : 10th September 2008 at 03:52 PM.
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  #12  
Old 12th September 2008, 12:09 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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2nd favourites
Slow
7 days
Winner

69.33% Win POT
8.33% Place POT
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  #13  
Old 12th September 2008, 12:34 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Interesting stats there Chrom.

Cheers.
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Cheers.
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  #14  
Old 12th September 2008, 02:43 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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They are indeed Bhagwan.H,mm.
Well worth looking into further.

Cheers.
darky.
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  #15  
Old 12th September 2008, 03:36 PM
Stix Stix is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
2nd favourites
Slow
7 days
Winner

69.33% Win POT
8.33% Place POT
4yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 24%
POT 10%

5yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 19%
POT 12%
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  #16  
Old 12th September 2008, 03:37 PM
Stix Stix is offline
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Originally Posted by Stix
4yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 24%
POT 10%

5yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 19%
POT 12%
4 or 5yo
last start winner
<8 days
<$10

S/R 29%
POT 11.5%
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  #17  
Old 16th September 2008, 08:53 PM
Stix Stix is offline
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These stats must have everyone busy developing their own angle.......he he he.....gone quiet!
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  #18  
Old 16th September 2008, 10:34 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Stix, these are tote figures of course - imagine taking Betfair SP
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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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  #19  
Old 17th September 2008, 11:50 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Hey STIX,
I for one am and thank you both for putting it on the forum.

SLOW /HEAVY ONLY

WON LAST START WITHIN 7 DAYS

AGE = 4 or 5 YO

FAV or 2nd FAV

Ah .Now for some forward testing eh.

Cheers.
darky

ps.How about ???

SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS

ON PACE RUNNER

SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE.
Last edited by darkydog2002 : 17th September 2008 at 11:54 AM.
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  #20  
Old 17th September 2008, 02:24 PM
crash crash is offline
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Add to any of the above systems: Must have won next start.
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