Hi all,

It doesn't look at bad meeting in Brisbane tomorrow, at Eagle Farm. The weather seems to have cleared and it should be a pretty good racing surface. There will probably be some short ones on the card, hopefully we can find some value in some of the other races though.

Race 1 -

My Market:
Conquering Spirit $3.60
Snippet Street $4.00
Le Sillage $7.00
That's Better $9.00
Testify $14.00


Tips -
Conquering Spirit
Snippet Street
Le Sillage

I don't mind Conquering Spirit here. From what i have seen in Brisbane, the form of last season's 3yo's is very good. This bloke has form around Heart of the Citi, Borsha's Mark and Dirty. That form is easily good enough to be a player here. If he is up to the mark, which i anticipate he is if Heinrich is starting him in town, i think he is a good chance. Snippet Street has a lot of speed and if left alone infront, could get away with it. I don't know what happened last time, but he was well in commission so i'm prepared to forgive the run. Le Sillage was disappointing last time at Doomben but the previous run was pretty good. I'm prepared to give her one more chance back to the 1000m but i prefer the abovementioned 2 horses, especially given the prices they are going to bet.

Race 2 -

My Market:
Chilled $2.35
Seesawing $4.20
Crevasse $9.50
Cayman Islands $21.00
Papal Joy $41.00

Tips -
Chilled
Seesawing
Cayman Islands

Chilled, as can be seen from my market, is my clear top pick. His last run was very good in stronger company than he meets tomorrow. If he can repeat the run, i think he'll win. And whilst the alley is awkward and he has his fair share of weight, the longer journey will suit him down to the ground, being by Redoute's Choice. Seesawing was an improved run last time, and with the extra fitness, and the extra journey, i think he is ready to run a race. The alley is perfect too, which will allow him to sit where ever he wants. Cayman Islands has had a few starts now, but has shown some ability. He might be able to string a few good runs together now that he has broken through.

Race 3 -

My Market:
Deacon $1.70
Punch Up $7.00
Regal Castanea $21.00
Little Stranger $31.00
Bradfield $31.00

Tips -
Deacon
Punch Up
Regal Castanea

Deacon was very impressive last time at Doomben over this journey. He produced a monumental jump in ratings from his prior starts, but given that he has only had a small number of starts, i think that is reasonable. If he goes anywhere near that figure again, he'll win. He has a good draw, a good rider, and there should be a fair amount of speed for him, so there should be no excuses. Punch Up has been around the mark in these sort of races for a couple of months now, so he is a definite chance. He hasn't won many of them though. He is a more talented horse than many of these though, so he must be given a chance. Regal Castanea was very impressive last time, winning after covering ground. However, i question the quality of opposition (Our Magic is a non-winner), especially when compared to his opposition in this race. He will be suited by Eagle Farm though. Place chance.

Race 4 -

My Market:
My Limit $1.40
Take The Plea $26.00
Sir Coup $31.00
Grand Corso $41.00
Winmara $41.00

Tips -
My Limit
Take The Plea
Sir Coup

Naturally, i wouldn't put too much stock in the prices listed above, but it does emphasise how far i have My Limit above his opposition tomorrow. Everyone saw his run last time, he was pretty unlucky, not being able to get the run when he needed it. The only problem with that though, is that punters always over-bet those horses and forget the ones which finished infront. Having said that though, i think My Limit is better than these which is why i've still gone for him. Take The Plea will improve back at Eagle Farm, this seems to be his track. The distance helps his chances too, as does the claim for Rolls, who is riding very well at the provincials. Good to see him get his chance in the city. Sir Coup was the winner of the My Limit race last time and he deserved a win, though i think My Limit has his measure this time, given the small margin.

Race 5 -

My Market:
Sams Express $5.00
Eskimo Dan $7.50
Currigee $7.50
Devastating $8.50

Tips -
Secrets Untold
Sams Express
Eskimo Dan

Tough race. I've settled on Secret's Untold, even though he sits well down in my ratings, because he is very consistent. If he is ridden back a little bit more tomorrow and can find his devastating sprint, i think he can go close. Sam's Express is running consistently but not finding enough to win of late.I'm prepared to forget the run last time on the slow track where Rockdale dominated, the runs before that were OK. I give him a place chance. Eskimo Dan can improve off the first up run too. The trainer knows what he is doing with a stayer, so i respect that. He is a nice chance at odds.

Race 6 -

My Market:
Friendly Embrace $7.00
Showify $7.00
Rasmussen $8.00
Vocalic $8.00
Ollie Vollie $11.00

Tips -
Vocalic
Rasmussen
Friendly Embrace

I don't mind Vocalic at odds here. He will get a perfect run on the fence and be ready to pounce when the pressure goes on. There is plenty of speed in the race which should mean he can settle back a bit and ease out at the top of the straight. His last win during the carnival was very dominant and while this is a step up from that, i think he is a serious threat. Rasmussen is a classy animal, and he does fire fresh. I don't think he wants to many of his rivals to press forward though - i have seen him compound very badly when taken on in front. That is why i haven't got him on top - there are a few other speed runners engaged. Friendly Embrace is in good form at the moment, and the speed in the race will certainly help him at the end of the race. Good chance too.

Race 7 -

My Market:
Fangles $5.50
Ghetto Blaster $7.00
Russeting $8.00
Ima Joker $11.00
Count Henry $14.00
Pride of Power $14.00

Tips -
Ghetto Blaster
Russeting
Lennon

Ghetto Blaster is the class of the field here and if he strikes his best form i think he can win. He has a perfect draw anda Seamer is riding in very good form. Although he has his share of weight, i think he can still beat them with average luck. Russeting was a pretty good win last time and it is very difficult to bag a horse with a winning ratio like his. If he strikes his best form, he can trouble Ghetto Blaster at the death if he is a bit soft in condition. Lennon was a good effort last time after not getting the race run to suit. If they can ride him in a similar fashion tomorrow, and the speed is on a bit more, he can run into the finish.

Race 8 -

My Market:
Black Morgan $2.50
Millers Wheel $10.00
Voltabolta $13.00
Framous $13.00
Mystic Vibe $18.00
Master Illusion $18.00

Tips -
Black Morgan
Framous
Rock My Roof

I think Black Morgan should go close in the last. His last run was pretty good and although he is unplaced at the 1400m, i can't see that being a problem. Framous has been thereabouts so far in his Brisbane runs and if there is a bit of speed here enabling him to settle back a bit, i think he can fly home. This is not a strong field. Rock My Roof is a lightly raced horse from the Pat Duff stable who might have a bit more upside than the balance of this field. Place chance.

There it is. Not a bad days racing tomorrow, with my best being Deacon and My Limit with a nice eachway chance to Vocalic.

Good luck with whatever you decide to have a go at

Sven

Great rundown Sven

Agree with Chilled, My Limit and Secrets Untold. All look very hard to beat. Can i have $10 each way please on Regal Castenea at those odds!!

Dont mind Shobelle in the last at good odds. Im going to the track tomorrow so i hope your bets do well cause most of mine will as well

Thanks HW,

Yea, i did think about whether i'd offer 21s about Regal Castanea. Given that i have posted it is probably testament to me not being a bookie

Sven

Given that there are a few scratchings, i'll post some replacements.

Race 1 - Junk in the Trunk third
Race 3 - Little Stranger third
Race 7 - Count Henry third
Race 8 - Millers Wheel third

Good luck all,

Sven

Good work Sven,
i like Junk In the Trunk in the first,,due for some luck,,,.thought Framous a nice bet in the get out stakes and maybe even Russeting with the big weight pull off the toppy..

Good luck today

Race 1: Not a great race. Instructed from Le Sillage.

Race 2: Papal Joy each way - still $5 with IAS and being backed in.

Race 3: Deacon but probably too short for a bet

Race 4: My Limit from Sir Coup

Race 5: Secret's Untold and Devastating - keen to back both at around $4 to $4.5 each

Race 6: Rasmussen from Friendly Embrace

Race 7: Ghetto Blaster from Russeting

Race 8: Difficult. I'm leaving it alone

Best of the day is Ghetto Blaster. His two wins from two runs last preparation were against slightly better opposition than he meets today. He will race about midfield and from his inside barrier he will need to find daylight, but assuming he does he will prove too good.

What a huge day.

Secrets Untold, Chilled, My Limit then had $5 e/w on Tornadic Sky and the same on First Militia in the last in Melbourne, had $5 e/w on Illuminates in the last in Sydney to thought id jagged 3 long shots!! Go Tuesday Joy great win today!!!

Great Write up Sven! was on a few, & had a cheeky on Guillotine so was a really good day!

Thanks Tevez,

Glad you got a few up. And congrats for getting Guillotine - was a good win.

Well done HW, that does sound like a big day

Sven

Good get Secrets Untold Sven,,i was worried the distance ,,but proven wrong..
Wasnt Ghetto impressive,,,thought Russeting had him but to classy..

Tornadic Sky was a great get for the blokes out there at Redlands..bought him as a cast off for not much at all and they've had heaps of fun with him..
he cant carry weight so they have to be carefull where they place him...the trainer impresses me as a guy who knows his stuff..