This just seems to re-enforce what was said earlier - you may as well bet win-only, your end of year results will be better. You made a loss this day, doing e/w, but straight up > 5x$5.00 = $25 over 18 bets. At level stakes that's a tidy profit % wise.

Just my 2c, I don't post on these forums much.

Thanks Usurper, l will put my spreadsheet in for september so it will show clearly what l do. Down the bottom l have highlighted how l invest 3 for win, 2 for win or 30/60 E/w.

I can see what you mean it may be the way to go & try to back 3 per race l will have to do some research but will do that on the side as the results seem to be the same every month but l agree it may inprove my profit as the outlay wont change.

Hope my excell sheet makes sense as only new to computer stuff, l may be off line for a couple of days as moving into new house today so no betting next weekend as sky will not be hooked up but internet should be back within two days.


Would appreciate if anyone can give some suggestions on better way to invest on this horses to increase profit.

thanks scottsbluff

Attached Files

Sept 08.xls (33.0 KB, 792 views)

If you had done win bets only, using the same $ outlayed, you would have made a profit $17,773 instead of $3,691.

I find it hard to believe someone who's been doing this for 9 years wouldn't have seen this, if this is a typical month of your returns.

Anytime is a bad time to to bet for the place with the TAB. The odds for the place are often 25% or even less than the win odds with no real way of knowing the odds your taking until after the jump.
If a selection finishes unplaced on a 1Wx2P bet, the place outlay is money down the drain that could have been used for two win bets. If the selection places it's a poor value return and if it places with a winning run [as often happens], it's an extremely poor return on outlay.

Specialized place betting and looking for value on Betfair would be the way to go if regularly betting for the place I think. However, considering your stated profit margin so far scottsbluff, I'd be ignoring the place bets and loading up on the win bets for sure.

Hello all,

made the move & back on line but no sky until next week so no betting this weekend. Thanks for your reply Usurper l see you have added up the total win amount for the month X $90 to get your result, yes i have been looking at the horses for 9 years & investing for approx 6yrs but if l knew which ONE horse only to invest on l would not be on this forum looking for advise. Crash l will look at opening other accounts to abtain a better profit margin & l agree with you & Usurper that droping the place bets may be the way to go BUT l will have to do some dummy runs for the next 3-6 mths to make sure my strike rate is there as if l had of invested in three horses per race l would have had a small loss so l will have to look at the strike rate of my top two selections & see if this is more profitable.

Thanks & good punting today,

scottsbluff

"l agree with you & Usurper that droping the place bets may be the way to go"

It's hard for some punters to do, the nice warm cuddle of a collect for the place is very hard to give up, regardless of the prospective gains in doing so.

It's different again if you are betting more than one horse in a race and hard to justify, but your results will tell you this.

Do what you feel comfortable with.

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

scottsbluff,
Your profit margin is so good [outstanding], apart from seeking better odds I can't see anyone here helping you to improve your profits. Any punter would be rapt if they were doing half as well.

Thanks Crash,

as l said l will look at fine tuning to remove the place betting but only with research at the moment & stick to the basics the way l am going as it is making money.

Crash thanks for your kind words & l will keep you posted if l can acheave better results but l think increasing my bet size may be the way to go as the results are consitent every month.

thanks again

scottsbluff

Hello All,

finished 1 year of punting l am starting the new year today (had march off) as yesterday to wet for me. The figures below are from 1/03/08 to 28/02/09 (sat & sun only). If you go back through this thread you will see an attached file that will show you how l bet, all races $90 (1351 bets @ $90) investment for whole year.

Total Profit	Total Outlay
$ 32,956.50	$ 121,590.00	27.10%

This year l am starting with $3,000 bank and betting 2.5% of bank per bet each betting day and adjust bet as bank grows or decreases as i feel this will increase profits as all bets last year were all $90.

Thanks for all your replys as all where good info, will keep you posted on how l go this year,

regards scottsbluff

Scottsbluff

Congrats on your continued success. I also use ratings but calculate these myself - I'm interested to know how you determine when you're getting "overs"? Do you calculate forecast prices yourself from the ratings you use or are you using published price forecasts linked to your ratings to do the job for you?

Cheers

Sparky