Since Surround won in 1976, 12 fillies have contested the Cox Plate.

Most of the fillies since Surround have been sent out at big prices and given little hope.

Of those in the market, Tristanagh ($5.50) ran 7th and Courtz 10th ($9) in 1989; while Society Bay ran 11th after being sent out a 10/1 chance in 1986.

Miss Finland was a $10 hope(6th in 2006).

All of the other fillies to contest the race in that time have been at 20/1 or greater.

On the Sires side of things for SM, Australia's top sire Redoute's Choice has never produced a G1 winner, [male or female] in an open to all-comers WFA event.

Considering the history for fillies in the Cox, I'd want better than 10/1 for SM.

Crash as I said I already have her at $17 so I guess I have the odds most wanted to see for her I amnot saying she is over the line or anything I'd rather be on her at the $17 I have her at then anything else in the race right now, will I have another e/w bet tomorrow probably will on C'est La Guerre who as I stated is massive odds.

i thought in a previous post she was your top pick?

yes she is my top pick but I wouldn't say I have any confidence in the race, I am happy to be on her and think she has more chance of winning this than I gave Miss Finland of winning her year. I think she is a better horse than Miss Finland mainly because I think she will be stronger over this trip.

I wouldn't want to back either of the 2 favs at the odds they are now to short for me hence the reason I will have something each way on C'est La Guerre tomorrow. Do I think Samantha Miss can win yes would I have backed her tomorrow at the odds she is now no regardless of whether I thought she could win or not.

I know everyone is bagging the quality of the field this year, but imagine if injuries hadn't plagued the plate field this year. we'd be seeing a field like this:

Weekend Hussler
El Segundo
Pompeii Ruler
Tuesday Joy
Light Fantastic
Master OReilly
Alamosa
Sirmione
Zipping
Maldivian
Princess Coup
Samantha Miss

now THAT would be quality

Hello all, Seems this is the best Cox Plate value wise in a long time!

Personally i can't see either favs winning, Samantha Myth has beat nothing in Sydney, she has never been put under pressure in any race, she has been getting back in slow paced races on wet tracks coming down the middle of the straight when in most cases the fence has been a no go zone. When the pressure is put on at the 800-600m mark i think she might be struggling. Massive unders at $3.80.

Now with Princess Coup we know she will get back which will probably suit with the way the race will probably be run but i doubt she has the early accelaration needed to put herself into the picture turning for home, she can reel of a nice last 100-200m sprint no worries but you need to be within striking distance turning for home and there are others back there with her who have more stamina and early accelaration. She has won once in 8 starts in Australia always running on into 2nd and 3rd and having that red siren that Raw Instinct says about Zipping. Unders at $4.00.

Now if Princess Coup is $4.00 how is Zipping $7.00? Zipping 3rd up into Cox Plate which connections have obviously targeted as the race to set him for, almost identical to Princess Coup but think might just have a bit more stamina and early accelaration to beat her home. $7.00 seems a touch overs.

Alamosa will get a perfect run from a great barrier, Should be sitting midfield with cover a great spot to win a Cox Plate from, however only been over the trip once finishing 5th behind Sir Slick in a strong race in NZ. Is a strong miler and finished of Toorak win strongly suggesting he will see the trip out. A top chance. Big overs at $12.00.

Big Mal's been schooled over the jumps in preparation for this and with blinkers added first time might sharpen him up for this. Whatever he does will kill Theseo in the process. Should bowl along and loves the Valley might be hard to run down if he can see off Theseo before turn. Overs at $12.

Don't be fooled by Cest La Guerre's early speed he has shown over here, has sat just behind speed in a few races in NZ last prep and from an inside gate has the chance to get in a lovely spot. Sectionals behind Duoro Valley were outstanding. Massive overs at $26.00.

Zarita is in the same boat as Cest La Guerre, could get a nice run close to speed, Cest La Guerre probably has a bit more brilliance though, although $26.00 is shopping nicely for her as well.

From the others Master O'Reilly is the only one i wouldn't be shocked if won.

Top 5:

Alamosa
Cest La Guerre
Maldivian
Zipping
Princess Coup.

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G'day Folks,

Really interesting thread this one and I thought I would add my two bob's worth in relation to Samantha Miss.

Having been in a fortunate position to get up close to this filly from her two year old days to now, I can tell you that you do not have to worry about her being out-muscled in this race. She is one vicious biatche!

The key to her success in this race will be the pace of the race, she cannot win if the pressure goes on at the 1400, she is just a bit too brilliant (al la Lohnro) to go much more than 250-350m at real warp speed.

Now the horses I would normally expect to start this pressure would be Theseo and Maldivian. But given Maldivian's recent performances, I reckon Rodd will be told to hold him up until the last third of the final turn (300m out). If that happens this will be a slower than normal Cox Plate and Samantha Miss should put this lot to the sword in the straight.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

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Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

Testa's had plenty of rest lately so he seems to be nice and clear eyed about this one. Regardless of the shallow depth of talent in this race, it's still the toughest race in Australia. What needs to be looked at in this race is the field taking off for home at the 700m [not the usual 400m.] with the last 150m uphill to the post! So any considerations should start at which horses are tough enough and 3yr. old fillies are not unless they have proven something beforehand. I'll disagree with Testa here by ruling out Zipping for a win as he's become a professional place getter and money vacuum cleaner! Master O'Reilly will probably be conceding too much ground. Mal. will be the one to run down back on a track he loves and the blinkers should help too. Alamosa gets the perfect run though and should have the petrol in the tank at the 700m.

Trying to pin the tail on the Donkey, my selections are: Alamosa, Maldevian, Zipping, Princess Coup and Zarita.

Stand-out place bet: Zipping!

Master O'Reilly

A bet at good odds , likes the distance and has won at Moonee Valley before.

1. Princess Coup
2. Zipping
3. Theseo
4. Maldivian/ Master O Reilly

Im leaving out Samantha Miss especially at those crazy odds. Shes had a lot of racing too and come down here step it up here at the valley in the PLATE with a distance shes never run...its a too much of a Big ask..