I plan to do this on Saturday Metrop meetings for a while. It shows a much better result than Country or Provincial. Still, I thought I would do todays meetings, just to see what difficulties there are in deriving selections.
Rules:
Candidate races (inlcluding Maidens, but not jumps, all field sizes) have a single top rater, which does NOT meet Michaelg's criterion of 'last two placed-positions to be between 3 and 6 points, and unbroken by a spell'.
Top rater must be below $5.50, but above $2.00. (If outside this range, again not a candidate race.)
Back the two lowest priced horses other than the top rater.
Actual prices (one minute to go?) are best, but I'll try with AAP prices. This presents some problems when get multiple equal prices - can result in single selections when cannot identify a clear second selection. Also, with scratchings, need to re-calculate market to check if, for example, a top rater at $6.50 may fall below $5.50 with scratchings.

Today's selections are:
Queanbeyan: R1 numbers 3 and 6, R2 3 and 9, R3 4 and 14, Race 4 1 and 2.
Muswellbrook:R2 1 and 3, R3 2 and 5, R4 1 and 10, R9 1 and 5.
Moe:R1 8 and 9, R2 1 and 6, R5 3, R6 2.

Oops, No 1 is scratched in the last at Muswellbrook. Selections are 5 and 7.

Good luck, Jackact. I'll be looking at it with interest. Who are you backing them with - the TAB, top Fluc, Betfair...?

The 100 pointer in Moe R6 meets the criteria for the original method. Are you betting in this race?



Today's selections are:

Muswellbrook R5 no.3 - Husisname.
Moe R6 no.7 - Rose Syrah.

You are right, Michaelg, R6 Moe was not a candidate race.
Only $10.70 return (Unitab) for outlay of $21.00 for the day. If had used actual prices would also have backed Hannesburg R3 Queanbeyan ($5.90), but still a bad day.
I think I will wait till the weekend, where I am hoping that over reliance on ratings by many punters will make some of these top raters over bet, and so produce value for non-Top Raters.

I have had a change of heart. I think mid-week Sydney may be OK (based on a small sample of past results), so here are the selections, again based on AAP prices, for Canterbury today:
R1 no 3, R3 2 and 4, R5 5 and 6.

From yesterday's two selections there was one accident for a loss of 1.15 units.

Today's selections are:

Canterbury R4 no.5 - Cheap Thrills
Townsville R3 no.7 - People's Choice
Ballina R1 no.5 - Got The Cash
Ballina R4 no.3 - Border Loop
Horsham R5 no.4 - Hiconi.

one filter which i had overlooked that may help exclude a few winners is no selection where weight is rising >=1.5kg from last start excluding any apprentice claims


raw data for those selections is -
bets 257
wins 79
s/r 31%
net +$5.2
pot 2.0%

A modest win yesterday, a return of $7.20 Unitab ($8.80 City Best Price), on an outlay of 5 units. I'll keep trying with Sydney Mid week.
Warwick Farm today:
R3 3 and 5, R4 2 and 6.

Slight loss: $3.60 (R3 no 5) return on outlay of 4. Will keep powder dry until the five Metrop meetings on Saturday.

Randwick R1 3 and 4, R5 1 and 7, R6 1 and 2, R7 1 and 2.
Moonee Valley R1 2 and 3.
Morphettville R1 1 and 3, R2 2 and 4, R4 1 and 5, R6 4 and 5.
Belmont (Pre scratchings) R5 1 and 9.