Thought I'd try a new backing system, I haven't checked any previous results, I just thought most of the rules made sense. Here goes nothin'........

1/ Must have win strike of 34% or more
2/ Won within 100m of today's distance in the last 12 months
3/ At least 3 career starts
4/ Must have won in the track conditions
5/ Must be in top third of average prizemoney
6/ If apprentice is riding, must have won on the horse and horse must like to settle 1 or 2 in running.

Today's selections:

Gosford

1/ No 3 Emperor Big Nose


The Schmile

How could you not love a horse called Emperor Big Nose? Anyway... He did the right thing and got the money.

'The Big Shnoz' won paying $2 UNITAB, though $2.45 was available on Fixed. I'll be recording UNITAB Tote div's.

A couple of qualifiers tomorrow and I'll be very interested to see how it goes on a Saturday.

Results:

Out 1
In 2


The Schmile

Geelong

8/ 3 Kid Capone

Ipswich

6/ 4 Shotfire Joker


The Schmile

Smokin !!!

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

TheSchmile, well done.

IMHO many systems fall over mainly because none of the rules allow the selection to be directly compared with the other runners. However, rule 5 does have this comparison, so I would not be surprised if you're on to something especially as the other rules are logically strong.

Good luck.

Hi Michaleg,

I hope you're back is a little better mate! I basically came up with this system while I was bored waiting for another of your extremely inspirational system ideas!

I think it's paramount that any system in the end compares itself to the other runners before coming up with a final selection. In the case of Shotfire Joker it was probably at such a generous price due to it just scraping in on the top third average prizemoney. The other runners were better credentialed money-wise but probably lacked the experience at the tight Ipswich circuit which brings many gallopers undone.

To get two winners at $4.30 and $7.20 respectively is ridiculous (extremely lucky) considering they had both won their last two starts.

I have been working like the proverbial dog the last two days so haven't had the time to check Saturday's selections/results. I'd imagine it would be necessary to add filters such as no WFA, Group racing etc for Saturdays.

I also think one mitigating factor that people often underestimate is track condition. If a horse has won on Good but not Dead. NOT GOOD ENOUGH. It's amazing the effect it has. Some horses need the sting out as they have bad joints etc. Others have the type of action that is ineffective in the wet and dynamite on a dry track (Snow Alert) for instance.

One rule of thumb:

If your selection is unproven in the conditions, add 3 points to your minimum acceptable price.

E.g. If your minimum price is $2, that selection will now have to be running at $5 for you to bet. You will save money, following this principle.

Any thoughts on this subject are greatly appreciated.

Results:

Geelong

8/ 3 Kid Capone WON $4.30

Ipswich

6/ 4 Shotfire Joker WON $7.20

Out 3
In 13.5

The Schmile

Ballina

3/ 5 Erinsea (g/d)

Launceston

6/ 1 Milocello (d or h)

7/ 1 Dream Flyer (g/d), 2 Rose of Scotland (g/d), 3 Spring Desert (h)

8/ 4 Too many Reds (g/d)

Note: g = good track, d = dead etc


The Schmile

No bets today due to track condition at Launceston being Slow and the Ballina pick being scratched.


The Schmile