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#51
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Hi Job123,
Using the $2.00 to $3.60 DS rated horses increased the Win Strike rate and returned an increase in Bank of 64.6 units (prior to the other rules being implemented). Hi Max, I have only looked at the DS favourite so I do not have any information on DS's 2nd or 3rd favourites. Recently a qualifier that started at $14.00 SP paid only $9.20 although I got $17.00 on IASBet. The results I tabulate (for consistency) are best of NSW or VIC Tab's so I listed it at $9.20. |
#52
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Only 1 possible selection today
Hawkesbury R5#4 River Press |
#53
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I looked at your suggestion of only considering contenders with an SP of >=$5.00. In the past 38 bets, there would have only been 3 winners, the bank would have dropped by 1/3 and would currently be on a 18 losing streak - Scary stuff!
Todays horse at 6 minutes to 12 pm is showing 13 dollars on both nsw and vic tabs( pre post 11$ ) so what if its more than 5 dollars just before the jump according to the above it would be wrong to bet on it ? |
#54
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The horse was unplaced so a new rule of no bet if 5.00 dollers or over is a good idea .
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#55
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Or that way would work as well. !
The point is to look at filters that contribute to your winnings amd/or filters that reduce your losses. Not choosing selections that are >=5.00 looks like a good start. |
#56
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new system .
Just saw in race 7 at syd today dons scott top winning rated at 5.00 dollars and paying 16 dollars in vic totes. So Try Try says the top rater loses if its 2.00 to 3.60 range and is 5.00 dallars or more sp That brings up a new system rule 1 ----5.00 or higher DS top 2-------must be 5.00 dollars or more sp-- the horse was also within the top 4 of the nurals cp rank so thats the 3rd rule keen to know if anyone has data to find if this is a good system in the long run .
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#57
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I can't understand why people start looking to change things when there are a few loses.
I've only just starter looking at this forum last week, I have put the selections in from Thursday last week into a staking plan and we are still $250 ahead with a starting bank of $400. I will continue to enter the details as TRY TRY Again posts and see what happens. Last edited by Pete the punter : 12th May 2011 at 03:48 PM. |
#58
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Aye Aye Pete.
Punting is a mugs game. 95% of the fraternity are losers. They have to be to pay the 5% that win. The rest put in and take out enough to be enticed to put in again. Now take the time to see where all the long time forum members are. The ones that are savvy. They have changed to laying. even some which are not computer savvy have moved. You make a system and trial it in real time with real money. If it is a goer then you put a staking plan to it to match the results. Altering it all the time throws money away. You are going to get good days and bad days and a few horrible runs. If the system is a good one and the staking plan is the correct match then it will survive and flourish. If not ditch it. Take the positives and try make another system. You cannot fix something if it is fundamently flawed. |
#59
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You make a system and trial it in real time with real money. If it is a goer then you put a staking plan to it to match the results---- to beton how do you determin if its a goer as you say . All I want to know is if anyone can test this system of mine here are the rules RULE 1 Top rated Don SCOTT 5$ or more RULE 2 sp 5 dollars and higher Rule 3 winthin top 4 cp nurals Rule 4 dead/good tracks in melbourne and sydney no city meetings Rule 5 8 to 13 runners only .
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#60
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JOB123 - post the selections and i'll throw them into the staking plan.
You didn't specify if there were 2 DS top raters what happens and whether it's a win only, place only, EW or 1:4 bet |
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