4legs,

I recall a few years ago someone writing somewhere that if all Betfair faves were layed (as he/she had done) then a loss would be incurred. I can't remember whether the period of time was mentioned. And this was before Betfair S.P. - so the person may have layed them had a higher price that what they started. However, it would be expected this would apply to some faves and the opposite to others.

So I think your theory might have legs (pardon the pun).

I'm sure many of us would be interested in your findings.

Ok - it will log results from today and I will progressively post my findings .. fred

If you lay all Betfair faves at SP, you lose 5%.
If you back all Betfair faves at SP, you lose 5%.

If you want to make money either way backing or laying, do not take SP on one horse, the odds are too spot on.

If you want to back all favourites, lay the rest of the field.
If you want to lay all favourites, back the rest of the field.

Therein lies the edge

Caveat: this applies to favourites only.

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Thanks for that Chome - that is very interesting.

Another point you raised also requires thought. When do you consider a horse firming or drifting? As a $3.00 favourite that went to $3.01 could not be considered to have drifted in price.

I was considering a 2% shift either way for it to be considered either as firming or drifting. It would therefore follow if it was + or - 2% it would be considered as steady in the market.

Firming	Initial	Drifting
$ 1.96	$ 2.00	$ 2.04
$ 2.94	$ 3.00	$ 3.06
$ 3.92	$ 4.00	$ 4.08
$ 4.90	$ 5.00	$ 5.10
$ 5.88	$ 6.00	$ 6.12
$ 6.86	$ 7.00	$ 7.14

Anyone any thoughts? Thanks Fred

I would consider a horse firming if it firms at least a point from the opening price and vice versa for drifting.

i.e 11 out to 12, 6 into 5.50, 1.80 out to 1.85, 1.90 into 1.80 etc.

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How many "Rolls of the board" in the old.

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Jose'.

CP suggested a horse shortening a "point" is a firmer.

I don't think a "point" was a term used in the good old days when something firmed a "quarter" of a point. I think the meanings of a point are blurred comparing times gone by ..... I recall when there was no such thing as 11 / 1 ?? ..... esp at the dogs !!!!!!!!!! Never heard of !!!!!!!!!!!!

Chrome: Thanks ... I will use a Point.

Michaelg: thanks for the encouragement - it should be an interesting exercise.

Vortech: 73% ... Gulp!

Bhagwan: On the tote I have been amazed at the change AFTER the race has closed. However in fariness, Tabcorp (NSW/VIC) state this in their official developers guide. I can get the exact times they quote if your are interested.

.. Fred

My statistics are very basic by taking starting price which normally equate to around 140% of the market. By race start its around 115% to compete with TOTE. Often had much debate over what is a plunge or a market mover when the variables are often so different.

Its all find to follow the leaders until they walk off the cliff.

Over my many years of laying and picking winners etc etc etc, I now only work on around 12 systems which focus on an average of 4 picks per race with a return of 76% winners from the four. Use this system on Quads and you normally get around 25-30%.

The variable I use the most is the Starting Price as its the best.
The next is a good free rating systems. Often different ratings work better in different states so I have a mix.

From a $10 investment on the quad you'll get around $40-$80 payout, but every 3 months a big one will come along and collect $100 - $500.

Of late, with a S/R of 76% I've been putting a $10 bet on any races with 2 or less horses selected. Good returns from Jan 11 but early days.

Any one interested in the rules or selections this weekend let me know.

I think its a little unique, something that you need from the rest.

Vortech
I think that we all would be interested in both the rules and the selections. I thank you for you contributions. Beton