Bhagwan
Thanks
I have just looked at Adrian's site.
20 years data confirms that UK racing is similar to Aus results - Fav wins 34% overall. Returns 92% which is more than Aus. Fav's greater than $4 occur in only 10% of races with a 16% strike rate and a 90% return.

But these are tote returns (I assume ) which brings the old question "What is the difference between the tote return and the betfair return.
So using the following assumptions.
Betfair reflects the fav on the tote
Therefore Betfair favs win 34% approx
Betfair will have strike rates for each price at a inversely proportional sliding scale similar to the tote. (shorter the price the higher the strike rate)
The 16% SR is only based on 10% of UK races
15% of Aus races are + $4
Betfair Aus has 27% races at + $4
Betfair prices are higher than tote prices
My observation is that considerably more than 10% UK races are starting at >$4 (8+ runners) considerably more than 15% or even 27% are starting at >$4. This leads to a possibiliy of a positive return in this area by backing the fav.
Hence we have several courses of action
(1) Can somebody extract the historical data from UK Betfair and /or
(2) I will have to trial it
Beton

Sim mode test overnight was very positive but one fine day does not make a summer. I did pick up a laying system which was basically lay the fav between $4.50 and $6.90. That had some saying great (the system was sold ) and some saying run. Mind you there seemed to be confecture in the rules all of which were not revealed. Beton

The reason why Adrians site says 34% Win SR is because that includes duel Favs.

Without the duel favs & it becomes 30%

UK Favs often pay more because they often have large fields especially the Irish races where the Fav could be as high as 11.00 & they sometimes still win.
This can throw the averages out somewhat.


Generally Betfair pays 20% more.
One has to allow for the 5% commission
Which makes its net price 15% more than the TAB.

Its funny how certain punters wine about the 5% Betfair com,
but say nothing about the TAB's 18.5% loading which includes their rounding down of of divs paid e.g. Calculated div 3.09 TAB rounds down to 3.00
That's a 4.5% take for nothing
One has to use fractional odds to work out the calculation.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan Thanks.
Shooting from memory in all price ranges the fav is good on Aus racing. IE if a $4 horse was multiplied by its strike rate the return would be even of slightly better then less the TAB commission. Actual odds make it $4.56 horse ($1 bet + $3 gain + $0.555 commission) Backing at BF the same horse would be $4.60 less $0.18 which still creates a slight loss. The only ways to win is increase the price you get or cut out the losers.
The observation that I am making is that the prices for the favs are getting longer in the UK. I cannot see the winning fav ratio changing nor the public getting it wrong. I suspect the public are demanding better odds. Last night 31 races 7 of which qualified at >8 runners and <$4 fav. I did not confirm but about 17 were <8 runners and 7 were >8 runners and >$4 fav. Thats 50%. 4 lost and 3 won giving a very good result.

That 50% is greater than the 10-15% of tote at >$4 and greater than 4Legs summary at 27%. Why I don't but it could be maturing market.

It bears looking and thus I will look. All assistance is welcome. Beton
If the above sounds fuzzy it because the elephant is a bit hard to kickstart this morning.

I have had this on sim mode the past 4 nights. 3 winning nights followed by a one unit loss last night. There is definately a bias here. Beton

10 Days in for 7 winning nights and 3 losers. I'am a believer and went live last night.

Hi Beton,
Did you say you are Back betting the 4.00+ Favs.

__________________
Cheers.

Yes Bhagwan.
Hope you did not try last night. Last night took back Sunday nights gain. 1 winner for 11 losses. But still way in front. Last night was an example of what I am seeing, 12 races in a 21 race card were starting with a $4+ fav. That is better than 50% Most nights it is between 33% and 50% are $4+.
A $4 Betfair horse is a $3.50 Tote horse. At the end of the day they are still going to win at the same ratio. The shift we are seeing is a money shift.
I downloaded from BBP 3000+ race results from $3.25. I don't know what I can do with them (zero excell skills) but they come out with a slight profit which would disappear with commissions. I would like to sort out the $4+ and see.
Beton

Beton, taking nothing away from your idea it may well work. But just have to say something about that 20% better on BF, er, that should be ****. i.e. the greater the price range the larger % difference, conversly as you go down in price so the advantage disappears to a negative.

I have done extensive comparisons, and backing Bob, TF, best tote/sp all beat BF HANDS DOWN, by as much as 10% (backing favs that is)

Party
That is what I want to hear. It is something that I have no experience nor the means to find out short of doing it. I have ancedotal evidence of 20% but I have also seen numerous occassions of the tote beating Betfair. The two are totally different. The tote is directly proportional to the money placed. Betfair is market based and is a can of worms. I want and need to get a comparsion between the two.

You are saying that to your experience the difference is a sliding scale from -10% to a say +50% at 100:1 This I can live with but I would live better if you could tell me approximately when they cross over i.e. at $4.50 a tote horse finishes with the same strike rate as a $4.50 betfair horse. We are talking average here. And a gut feeling is better than nothing. The crossover must be close.
Thanks Beton