Since you won't know what you can get for your selection until after you have selected it then it is more of just make your selection then get the most you can when you know.

But don't go to high on price as you don't want to much on the liability side.

Shaun,

Thanks for the advice. It has made a lot of sense and I'll probably be tipping one of the 2 favourites in the race (Jimmy Choux or Love conquers all).

I've decided to go for the big win.

The horse I have selected is not in the top few in the experts tips for the race (its not Jimmy Choux, Love Conquers All, Secret Admirer or Kings Rose).

I believe I have a reasonable chance with this horse (15%- 20% confidence level) due to the rail being out 9 metres.

I believe there will only be maybe 1 or 2 other people pick this horse if any at all. This means I could have it racing for me for $16K - $25K. I can't lay that amount on betfair (don't have the funds) but will lay what I can so that even if it loses I will have won something.

I'll update the selection when the tipping comp closes its seleciton period which is at midday.

You wouldn't need to lay that much on betfair, you are laying the difference between the liability and the profit.

I can understand why you want to go for the big win because these things don't come around very often, i will upload a sheet you can input the details to work out the lay amount, just so you know your options and don't need to give away the runner.

This file is designed for your situation.

Attached Files

Green Up.xlsx (9.4 KB, 162 views)

I am on Testa My PAtience .. I am surprised there are 10 people on it.

So possible win is 5K.

You could make around 450 if you wanted, maybe the price will come down and you could make more.

The guy on 4. Love Conquers All is in a good situation, going for 50k but could make 5k win or lose if he had 5k to lay on it.

I thought love conquers all would have more people tip it. I would have gladly tipped it for 25K.

Bit disappointed in 10 people taking the same selection as me.

Yes a bit, Jimmy would have been worth about 1k w/L