Aha! the meat of the issue.

As much as I love and respect the Bhagwans of this forum I urge anyone who wants to get seriously large in this game to go to their nearest Uni and speak to a Mathematics boffin. Please don't waste your time working out how much the next bet should be for. This is taking your mind away from WHICH bet to make. If level stakes don't cut the mustard, a staking plan won't cut the mustard.

This isn't my opinion, my idea, my nothing. It's just plain, proven fact. Talk to the boffins....they know.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Thanks for all the comments so far.

TWOBETS, I don't quite get what you are saying. What will the boffins say?

This has nothing to do with a staking plan. I'm just trying out the system with level stakes. Again a $25 gain was had today if I stopped (which I did). That's 5 days in a row if I had of stopped from the get go (I've bet for the last 4 days). I know it's ridiculously early but 5 lots of $25 makes $125 while continuation betting would of made a total of only +$24 for the 5 days. (Current amount today is at +$59 but there was a $60 draw down so I would of been stopped out at +6 today if I was using the continuation mode).

It is the type of system that will be up and down and will require a stop loss however because of the up and down nature then maybe taking the profits is the way to go.

I know that share traders say you should cut your losses early (have a stop loss) but you should also let your profits ride however, with the horse trading that I do I will hedge my bets thereby usually giving me a profit at the end of each session which has adds up over time. Having a profit stop to me is the same as that. Yes sure the system could go gang busters one day (or maybe even more) but what I think may be worse is giving all the day's gains back because I was too greedy.

"The mathematicians amongst us would know that a staking plan does not enhance any system. That said, it is critical to get the staking level correct to suit the particular SR/dividend scenario."

Hi Twobets,

Not trying to take the Mick, just trying to clarify the situation as your last post struck a chord. In my other thread you stated 'the mathemeticians amongst us would know' and here you advise to go to the nearest Uni and speak to a mathematics boffin.

I think your advice in essence is sound as one could solve most of these arguments with a statistics 'boffin' but I'm not sure where you stand?

Can you provide statistics either way as to where The Ocho should go woth his idea?

The Schmile

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Afternoon, the Schmile.

I'm no maths brain for sure, but I have seen so much on forums around the world that are constantly discussing this staking plan or that staking plan.
All I was trying to point out is the futility of mucking around with them. It is a waste of time and effort.

Obviously if something other than the maths is involved then these are paths and points to ponder, but if it's just the maths your playing with then surely the over riding point should be that long term, any staking plan as such is useless. Of course marrying stake to one's bank, SR, volatility etc are all ultra important.

No Mick taken the Schmile , but my wife does say I'm a bit of a dill.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Hi, Thought I might butt in with a thought. A punter I know has all his selections for the , bets level stake, but when he gets a winner he halves the level stake bet for the rest of the day and does well with this method. Next day he starts of at his usual level stake bet, if he gets a winner goes bach to the half bet. If you back loosers for the rest of the day thee pain is not as great, if you get a nother winner you are still on.

Yes Wildchild, but if you get another winner you're only on for half.....or in other words over an extended period of bets......no difference!

This is the thing with all staking plans : they divert your attention away from the real issue and at years end make not one iota of difference.

Stick to a bank percentage and go get 'em. :-)

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

So TWOBETS, are you saying a stop at a winner type approach (profit stop) is a staking plan and not a system? And that those boffins of yours reckon that's no good?

If I'm betting level stakes then surely its not a staking plan.

Well the Ocho, one has to be careful here about how you evaluate the strategy.

If the only factors affecting your decision to stop betting are mathematical, then yes, it makes no difference. But often there are more factors at work with the horses. Maybe there's something in the last races of the day that are affecting this system's results? If that is the case then it's a system not a staking plan.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

A system is a winner if it comes out ahead according to the rules. Stop at a winner is a system if that is the system rules. However stop at a loss or profit is money management or a staking plan. If a system does not produce a positive result on its own merit,then it is a loser. It might be today, it might be next week or even next year. Thus if you have a winning system then money management can help. If not then it will inevitally fail. However there are people that make money out of money management but that is more than stopping when in front. If you are risk adverse then stopping when in front may be a winner but do not regret what was left on the table. The only real way is to test and record the progress and make up your mind accordingly. Your system may work good on the early races and fail on the later which should form part of the testing. Beton

It could be worth looking at those later races to see whats going on, & rather than stopping at a fixed profit, it may pay to stop a race number X at each venue.