Running Tally

42 Selections
Return 33.90
Loss 8.10
LOT 19.28%

Was a horror day for the lays, and I'd imagine that this was probably one of the best days backing ever.
Will be interesting to see how it fares after the weekend.
Still ahead nearly 20%.
In reality, still way ahead as have been laying to liability and a few very short horses lost this week.

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"All tipsters lay the fav" tally for yesterday was 56 selections for 29 winners (and at good odds $4+) with a lay loss of 36.78

Overall it is now showing a loss. A lot of the damage was done by one tipster who tipped multiple meetings. He had 18 tips for 10 winners and contributed 18.15 of the loss. Prior to today he had only gone 5 winners from 22 selections and had been profitable laying.

What would have happened yesterday if Bhagwan's advice of only laying under $4.90 was followed?

For one the $7.48 winner would not have been picked.

I looked at the Herald Sun yesterday and noted that all 3 tipsters picked Donovan to win but only one was the best bet. What if you delete the ones where all tipsters pick the same horse (or maybe where the majority pick the same horse)? What would happen then?

laying to liability looks to be a good option here as it appears that the price of these hot tips that fall over is less relevant to the strike rate than normal? By that I mean it appears that as many short and odds on pops fall over as the $3-4 priced ones..

if that is true (is it??) then a % of bank fixed liability approach would work well....wouldn't it?

I have to admit I have not been recording each selection and whether it was a multiple pick or anything. So I really should go back and see what I can come up with.

This looks half promising as at least a starting point for a method of laying.

Lucky I am sick and have time to do this ..

BTW MErry Christmas everybody.

Just did a quick test on the selections and I havbe only loaded a few days so far but laying to liability of $1 showed a loss of $1.68 but just putting $1 on it with variable liabiliuty showed a profit of $11.94

Very early as its only on 86 selections but that is a bit of a huge difference already. I haven't loaded yesterday results yet though.

I'll not be posting selections, as I really don't have the time at the moment.
I will post the summary tonight.

Rules are: Best Bets from Herald Sun and Tattsbett where it is best bet by only one tipster.

We are still showing a 20% POT laying at Betfair prices.

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Sand R4 H3 Won @ $3.10
Sand R4 H4 Lost
Sand R5 H8 Won @ $3.05
Sand R8 H5 Lost
Gold R3 H2 Lost
Morp R4 H1 Won @ 3.14
Morp R6 H9 Lost
Morp R7 H2 Lost
Asc R4 H4 Lost
Too R2 H9 Won @ $1.99
Too R3 H4 Lost
Doo R3 H3 Lost
Doo R4 H1 Won @ $2.18
Doo R5 H8 Lost

Running Tally

56 Selections
Return 47.36
Loss 8.64
LOT 15.43%

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg