Just todays Race Distance Mark.
Cheers
darky

Which leaves us with 4 selections/lays.....

Expanded the criteria a bit & came up with this for the last 18 months or so -

Races 2100 &>
Last Start Winner - if more than one in field selection is shortest SP
Field Size - any
All states except SA & TAS
Filters
- exclude all rising 4.5kg or more - (nice win system there if you like 1 bet a month)
- exclude all 3yo fillies - Oaks & the like
- maximum SP $20 (there were no winners over $20 but as a layer I just don't go there)

Selections - 399
Return less 5% comm $562
POT 41%
Winner s/r 14.3%

Not too shabby, someone with a more exhaustive db might want to chip in as I did record a couple of bad losing periods within the 18 months.

It depends which "system" you're using but if following Bhagwans first system results then all 4 LSW horses should have been layed which would have resulted in a loss as the winner was $6.08 on Betfair SP.

OR, using the second system

Numbers 2 & 4 were over $6 on Betfair so should both have been layed however number 6 (the winner of the race) was also over $6 on Betfair SP ($6.08). This would also have resulted in a loss in this race for an extra unit than the first system.

Why have you listed only one horse DD?

Hi Darky.
This technique of laying is probably the safest to use.

Divide the runners price into a payout figure.

Example.
Payout fig. say $30
Price say 6.00
30/6 = O/L $5.00

If we get bit = we lose 5.00 x 5/1 (6.00) = 25.00
If it falls over for us - we win $5.00

__________________
Cheers.

I will expand betting to price further.

If 1.50 / 30.00 = O/L 20
Liability if it wins 20 x .50 (1.50) = -10.00
$20 profit if it falls over for us.

If 20.0 / 30.00 = O/L 1.50
Liability if it wins 1.50 x 19/1 (20.00) = -19.00
$1.50 profit if it falls over for us.


Its the same technique Bookies use to frame their market when laying the field to their book percentage.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks Bgahwan.
Cheers
darky

Selection today using the criteria I outlined above -

Gosford R6 No2 Straight Albert - there are 2 other ls winners, No's 4&12, however No2 look like will start the shortest.

ouch, got smacked first up

Ocho.
"why did I have ONLY 1 horse."
It was a mistake on my part.I was thinking in terms of the other system.
Cheers
darky