Benfica Caulfield R5 No. 1

It has a tongue tie on which indicates it may have choked up in it's last run. It was also examined by the vet. Will the 'unwashed' plonk on this at good odds or look for the form horse ?????

This horse WON the TJ Smith, a G1 race at Eagle Farm.

It's also going up 200m in distance, a good sign

Now my point is this ..... because this horse is second up and it had problems first up, we don't know of it's improved considerably since it's last preparation ..... it might have !! It may have won it's last start without the problems, and would probably start close to favourite (that I'm guessing) tomorrow. So ..... are we getting juicy odds about a favourite 'coz punters focus on wins and placings at a horses previous start ??

The best rating service in the country (r+s) has it a $21 Chance so I guess I wont be betting it.
Cheers
darky

It's not one of my 'system' nags so I won't either. I just posted this for a bit of think music for the 'unwashed' ......

Thats the beauty of the Professional handicappers who take everything into consideration not just 1 or 2 factors.
Cheers
darky

Hi darkydog2002, "I've read what you typed and I understand what you said" ..... I love that phrase, it's not mine, but I just love using it, it makes me sound philosophical !!!!

My main question ??? Does the professional handicapper take into consideration improvement of a horse during a spell, ie; the fact it matures, grows bigger, muscles up and so on ??

A dumb question ???? How does the professional handicapper take into account any previously unforseen niggles that horse may have had, that have since been addressed either during it's current campaign or during it's spell ??

Yes he does.
Unseen niggles,how they travel in the float on the day etc cant be asessed except by the trainer.
Other things in the race i.e checked/blocked /wide running etc cant be asessed by anyone until after the race and then the Pro Handicappers go to work applying penalties ,bonuses etc.
Cheers
darky

WOW ..... OK !!!

Hi Darky
You have mentioned the ratings prowess of r+s a few times. Is it the 'worksheet' section prices you look at?

Hi Rails Run,
Yes that the one.
The asessed price indicates the top horses.
As Michaelg once pointed out its best to concentrate on horses $11 or under.
The more professional way is to bet those that are over their asessed prices.
Cheers
darky

An angle to look at with Snowden's horses is when they are sent from Melbourne after lacklustre performances, back to 'daddy' in Sydney. They often run very well and at decent prices.

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty