A real market example wo work off for the explanation:

This is a 98% market.

2. HOT BUZZARD = 1.95 / 1.92

3. DANA TRAVIS = 5.8 / 5.5

4. REGAL GATE = 80.0 / 55.0

6. RYBENBROOK FLICK = 20.0 / 14.0

7. CAPTAIN KRUNCH = 15.0 / 13.5

8. PERFECT POWER = 6.0 / 5.5

Its a dog market I know but i collect hose as well and any market should be easy to do the explanation. So I would lay each as follows ?

2 = $56.41
3 = $18.10
4 = $1.25
6 = $5.00
7=$6.66
8=$17.00

So the total coming in to me is $104.42

If Fav wins I lose $110 - 104.42 = $5.58
If 2nd Fav wins I lose $105 =58c
If 3rd Fav wins I win = $2.42
If any other runner wins I win $4.42

Is this correct keeping in mind I have not taken into account commission.

Over 100 races lets assume favs win 30 times, 2nd favs 25 times and 3rd favs 15 times and all others 30 times.

30 Times I lose $5.58 = $167.40
25 Times I lose 58c = $14.50
15 Times I win $2.42 = $36.30
30 Times I win $4.42 = $132.60

This makes a loss of $13.

What am I missing with Marks method ?

A quick check reveals nothing wrong with your numbers UB.

I checked my figures from Last Saturday to tonight, I have bet on 80 races and averaged just over 102% per race, so in your example add a runner at say 30, that's an extra $3.33 in per race, times 100 = an extra $333 in, added to your loss of 13 = +320. Not to be sneezed at as the downside is limited. Alright we haven't taken off commission but given your example and the % I have achieved we are now well in profit. And these figures are for a base book of $100. I regularly make books for $1000 or more and when Black Caviar was running around I was holding in excess of $15000....and had no losers.

"Over 100 races lets assume favs win 30 times, 2nd favs 25 times and 3rd favs 15 times and all others 30 times."

Nothing wrong with these numbers either, my actual for the last 80 races (converted to 100) are 30 favs, 40 2nd & 3rd favs, and 30 others, which is pretty average.

I'll post my book of the G1 tonight after it has run. (ps, can't lose)

Don't know how well this will copy.



Horse Racing > MVal (AUS) 23rd Mar : R6 1200m Grp1 Showing 1 - 8 of 8 Selections

Selection Odds Stake($) Bid type Placed Profit/loss($)
1. Hay List * 1.57 2550.00 Lay 2550.00
2. Buffering * 9.69 412.70 Lay 412.70
3. Woorim * 14.80 270.20 Lay 270.20
4. Rekindled Interest * 32.00 125.00 Lay 125.00
5. Beaded * 25.00 160.00 Lay 160.00
6. Lone Rock * 32.00 125.00 Lay 125.00
7. Mid Summer Music * 27.00 148.10 Lay 148.10
8. Foxwedge * 15.75 254.00 Lay -3746.50
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 0.00
Lay subtotal: 44.50
Market subtotal: 44.50
Commission @ 4.4%: 1.95
Net Market Total: 42.55

Thanks Mark,

I'll go through this and have a look.

Ok so I can see your getting over a 100% book.

Could you explain your process to me though. Do you first start laying the favourite or do you start with the longer shots ?

Do you have a minimum size of money in the pools. ie Group 1s are going to have more then a maiden.

Thanks.

Hello Mark
I have trouble working out your figures. How much would you have lost if HayList had won?

Said it before and I'll say it again, there is no process. Every race is different. Some start by laying the fav, others the outsiders, others the lot, others one or 2 and build from there. No minimum, if I think I can get on over 100% then I start work, obviously I can hold more on the better races.

Clive.....Lost??? There were no losers. Hay List was a winner for around $40. I thought he would win so bunched them all up.

But I thought you laid to lose on SPO 1 & 2, maybe win a small amount on SPO 3. and clean up if anything else wins ?