Actually after reading your last post, I like it.
I think it has legs, but maybe we or you need to concentrate on the price of the third favourite.
i.e. if the favourite is between $2.00 and $2.50 and the third favourite has x% strike rate in these circumstances, what is the maximum price we are able to lay that third favourite at?

I would look at price first and liability second, but I could be wrong.

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Chrome Prince I am trying to understand what you are saying here. The third fav without having done the charts seems to be quite stable. It has an overall average of about 14%. Below $2 it dips below 10% and it goes out to 16+% as the fav gets real long. Where the bulk of the races are $2-$4 Fav it only ranges 3-4%. What I am trying to do is set the price of the field to their average SR. This is their breakeven point before commissions. The maximum we can lay it at is what the market will allow us to. If the maximum price we can get on the third fav is only $5, then this is the price. (we are actually trying to get the lowest price) By setting our liability to the SR we may have the payout at $120 instead of just $100 but we are loading up on unders. in the rare occassions that the price is above the SR then we have limited our exposure. I think that the third is overbet by people looking for value. You need $6+ most of the time and below odds on you need near $10. (I toyed with the idea of just laying unders and dismissed it as too hard and maybe unwarranted) We may have to set the amounts to breakeven after commissions to make it work profitably, or even to breakeven after both commissions and profits.

What we are searching for is that it is not a dead duck in the water. That it can be done and how it can be done and who can help how they can help and will they help. Hopefully to each persons benefit. If you are drilling for water, nobody can get a drink until you bring the water to the surface.
Beton

O.K. got it now.
Yes, I'm willing to help if I can.
If I can't and you are at a dead end, I can point you to a good programmer.

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Chrome Prince
Thanks for the offer. I see a need and will eventually take you up on the offer as I see that to get the full potential it needs to be linked to a current and extensive database and be linked to pick up the market flucs. In the interim I am going to try get the charts done and test it in real time and real money. Beton

That's the first step.

Not sure how you will get it linked to a database.
As far as I'm aware you can't link a database to the api.
You can capture data from the api and send it to a database, but can't send data from the database to the api, from what I've been told.

You are best to create visual basic modules with variables that "watch" the api and send bets via excel when criteria are met.

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I'll get the charts done first in excel. That will be a big step and then see from there, I hav no idea of "visual basic modules with variables that "watch" the api and send bets via excel when criteria are met." but I know that I will.

This is a module in one of my workbooks that reloads the markets at 10:30am every day, so I can leave the computer running indefinitely without having to do anything.
It's all visual basic.

__________________
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What would happen if one Layed the whole field to $100 Liability & singled out say the 3rd fav to $150 liability.

Would that show profit if say the 3rd Fav only won 14-15% of the time ,
over say 100 races.

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Cheers.

Shaun / Chrome Prince and interested others.
I have given this some heavy thinking on this. I have also undertaken a crash course in excel. I am still a long way from being competent as a beginner, but each day I am learning more. I know that soon I will hit a brick wall and will need lots of help. However I do want to learn and know how to do this and more.
Attached is a SS showing the chart that I want as the basis for this. Do not take any notice of the figures in the cells as they are just the average breakeven price for each ranking in my breakdown. Note that I have $200 in a few cells, this is because I consider all horses at least a 200 to one chance. There is a box showing the average breakeven for 5 runners at <$1.60 fav price. And down the bottom is the average breakeven in all the >16 runners. This is to indicate the variance as we go from 57.4% for the fav in the 5 runners down to 22.8% in > 16 runners. Equally variable is the second fav.
I want to list all these variances and lay based on those prices. The actual price will actually be a hybrid of the prices, laying to a set amount, plus a loading on certain ranked horses. How and why I achieve these prices I still need to work out and test.
My question is “Can this be done in this format?” “We would have to lay to set amounts just prior to start time. The way I see it is that the Gruss bot will tell us (1) how many runners, (2) the fav expected range 30 sec out (3) the ranking order. Then if # runners=5 and the range between $1.30 and $1.60 then the bot will be directed to lay the fav at the liability of C8, the second fav at the liability of D8, the third fav at E8, fourth at F8 and Fifth at G8. Some of these may have a zero value because there are instances already identified that it is not advantageous to lay all the horses.
The questions are for procedure. I don’t want to do all the charting to find that I have to list them differently. Or that there is 10% more selections than the bot can handle.
My initial testing at random has shown that it is worth pursuing. Thanks in advance Beton

Attached Files

chart working.xlsx (20.0 KB, 366 views)

Bhagwan sorry for the delay.
That is something I am trying to figure out. Ultimately I want a profitable line on every line, for every field size and price range. There will be swings but I beleive that by doing it this way I will be getting a better deal on unders and limiting the stake on overs. Testing to date says continue. Beton