I often look at horse ownership. Larger syndicates often over bet on there own horse. Anything in pink and white under hancox has limited value

Exactamundo

__________________
"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

Shouldn't that read "who I laid" and..... you lucky dawg...

Thanks.

Some interesting replies. but not quite what I was looking for mainly because, while you all answered my question correctly after I re read it the question was not exactly what I wanted to say.

It might have something to do with the fact that if I knew the question, the answer or answers might be a lot easier to find.

I will have to rethink a better way to express my thoughts in my fuzzzy logic and maybe one of you might be able to understand my gibberish better than me.

Star.

OK Time to revisit my thinking. I had three bets today over two systems.

System 1 Belmont R3 no 11 Wildwood which , is now, after the fact Won paying $12.70. So Sytem 1 is doing ok after a run of outs of 7.

System 2 has two bets. neither have run yet, if they have I have not looked.

Belmont R8 No. 6 Hurritdanz

Belmont R 9 No 4 A cheatin Smile.

I will post this now and give my thoughts after the race. I am on a runof outs of 6 on this system.

Pete

Before System 2's first horse goes off in 15 minutes at Belmont my thinking is that with a current SR of 20 % and a current run of outs of 6 I expect a winner in next six races.

Star

A Third and an unplaced. Now a run of outs of 8. Worst loosing run of outs is 13.

So unless the curse gets me, I am looking for a winner in the next five races. What I expect to happen is to actually get a few winners closely following each other to maintain the SR.

The odds seem to look after themselves so I will post the runners up to fourteen consecuctive loosers.

This system can stand a run of outs like that while I can get a price average of about 6 or more.

Star

ps

No qualifiers for either system tomorrow, Thursday

To follow on.

System 1, my oldest is performing ok. Had I bet for a $5 winner yesterday.

But System 2, my latest is interesting. I need some more quick filters for it, too time consuming and too many bets in a day for my likeing. Anyway, here are todays bets. I am putting them up to defy the forum curse, if they can overcome that and the likely prospect of a public flogging then the system might have some value with extra research.

Now, what I try to do with my systems is to have a draw down, once I get in front a fair bet. The words of ' CRASH " still ring in my ear. Remember him, he was the voice of doom but a very important member here because he bought you down from your highs.

System 2 is in profit just.
SR now down to 17% where averag has been 21 to 22%. On past records that has indicated I am due for a string of quick winners in a short space of time to nget the % back into the 20's.

My current runof outs is 8. I have 12 bets today, if all loose that is 20 losses in a row. My thinking is that once a system hits twenty I have to reject it or refine. The worst this system and its variations have been is 13. That is only based on about four or five months figures but the consistency has been their in that time.

Ok He is the Death numbers.

BELMONT
R3 H4 Trustee Brown
R4 H11 Sweet Serenity
R8 H 12 I see things you dont

EAGLE FARM
R7 H12 Forfeiture
R8 H3 Tierqualo

FLEMINGTON
R7 H8 Dash for Viz

MORPHETVILLE
R4 H5 Food Eater
R5 H13 Rubdoubt
R8 H9 Lady Dynamo

WARWICK FARM
R4 H1 All Legal
R6 H9 Kimberley Lad
R8 H5 General's Sniper

At this stage, this system is still in the testing and instead of paper trialling it I have 50 cents on each bet until the bank rises then the % bet increases with some adjustments for sanity.

Their is too many bets for me here but 12 bets ais only an outlay of $6 but if the bank rises then 12 horses at a much higher bet takes me well out of my comfort zone. So we will see.

Star

In paragraph 3, I said a " Fair bet " it should have read " A fair bit ". That's a big difference.

But cannot edit now, so sorry.

Star

Well I had a shocker. Not sure if the neural changes made a difference or not.
I had one scratching and now am on a loosing run of 19.

Just as well I am only using 50 cents bets.

I knew I was in trouble when I noticed the neurals changing before my eyes. Hence all my other posts on the other thread. I do not want to throw the baby out with the bath water but got some serious thinking to do.

Might have to run some paper trials, the Neurals have almost lost me.

Pete