Attractive !

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

A fair sprinkle of multiples, long shots then?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

And your's, garyf?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Same as yours.

Cheers.

OK, so lets explore further...

What if:
1. bank gets split 50/50
2. only 2 bets for the year
3. selection takes 5-10 mins
4. expected return = 10%
5. opposite position to 'the crowd'

Any thoughts on this one?

Attractive
Boring
Impossible
Easy
Madness

?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Silly.

2 bets a year. What if you don't get a winner for a few years or you miss that one bet in 6 months.

Silly.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

a. Assume automatic selection eg BOT
b. You always get a winner bc you are sitting opposite to 'the crowd'

LG

PS would have preferred "madness"

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Madness, sheer madness. 2 bets a year? What's your name? Barny?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Lets get some perspective here. There is approx 40 meetings here in Aus for thoroughbreds, each with average of 8 races. 320 races per week, 16,640 races per year. Lets say your system allowed you to bet on half the races and you got 10% POT. and you only bet $1 each bet. This would give you 8,320 bets for a $832 return. Depending on your strike rate you may get a run of outs of 40 for example. So you may actually only ever need $80 to start and run this system. A 10x return on investment every year for $1 bets.
I will take it.
Similarly if you had a system that had you betting 5 horses per race at $1 for a 10% POT. This would give you 83,200 bets per year for a $8320 return. Unlikely that this system would need $800 at risk but this is still a 10x return on investment. I will take it. In fact I would give the other one away for this one.
The stark reality is that you need volume and a small POT comes with volume, to make punting pay. Big POT systems usually have a small number of bets, so you need a greater stake or a number of big POT systems to make anything out of it. It is better to have a slice of a very big pie than
than to have half a slice of a very small pie. Mind you I would not mind having a whole small pie if I could be guaranteed it everytime I wanted one.
Beton

I'm hungry now.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale