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Old 9th May 2013, 09:18 AM
CairnsMan CairnsMan is offline
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Default Early Prices and early betting

Hi,
Does anyone know a site where you can bet on races between the time that fields are declared and the start of official betting. I keep hearing stories of people who claim that they've backed this or that and got better prices than the average Joe at the track.

Mostly these people claim to be "in the know" but are their stories true or just fanciful talking? If you can bet early, where pray tell. (I'm talking about fixed price of course not those rip off TAB sites)
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Old 9th May 2013, 11:37 AM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CairnsMan
Hi,
Does anyone know a site where you can bet on races between the time that fields are declared and the start of official betting. I keep hearing stories of people who claim that they've backed this or that and got better prices than the average Joe at the track.

Mostly these people claim to be "in the know" but are their stories true or just fanciful talking? If you can bet early, where pray tell. (I'm talking about fixed price of course not those rip off TAB sites)


Hi Cairns

Two very good questions.

I use Dynamic Race Odds (DRO) as a tool to determine any perceived edge that I may have over early prices. Generally you can start to bet on Saturdays metro racing Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. Many of my bets are at early prices but more often than not the morning of the race as opposed to days before.

You need to also be aware that taking early prices days before an event can be a disadvantage. Firstly scratchings will affect your dividend (can be much more severe on rain affected tracks) but also the track conditions and other factors that affect the form can change quickly thus potentially eroding any perceived edge.

If you are intent on betting early, my recommendations would be to use an odds comparison site like DRO but in saying that I would be careful unless you are able to accurately determine a runners probability of success or have access to a service that can do that for you.
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Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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  #3  
Old 9th May 2013, 12:05 PM
CairnsMan CairnsMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulD01
Hi Cairns

Two very good questions.

I use Dynamic Race Odds (DRO) as a tool to determine any perceived edge that I may have over early prices. Generally you can start to bet on Saturdays metro racing Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. Many of my bets are at early prices but more often than not the morning of the race as opposed to days before.

You need to also be aware that taking early prices days before an event can be a disadvantage. Firstly scratchings will affect your dividend (can be much more severe on rain affected tracks) but also the track conditions and other factors that affect the form can change quickly thus potentially eroding any perceived edge.

If you are intent on betting early, my recommendations would be to use an odds comparison site like DRO but in saying that I would be careful unless you are able to accurately determine a runners probability of success or have access to a service that can do that for you.
Thanks Paul,
I'll check it out and thanks also for your cautionary comments. I'm well aware of market percentages etc and I expect that early prices will have a market percentage that is extraordinarily high. So I'm not likely to find value very often.

Thanks for your guidance.
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