Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Selections to LAY for today incorporating Vortech's (thank's for your contribution) filters:

Randwick
R2........7, 8, 11
R5........9, 12, 13 +$85.72
R7........5, 7

Flemington
R2........13, 14
R3........5
R5........12
R6........9, 11, 13, 18, 19 +$28.63
R7........15
R8........12

Eagle Farm
R3........18
R7........6, 12, 16, 18 +$36.03
R8........9, 12
R9........8, 14

Morphetville
R3........7
R4........11
R5........4, 7, 9, 12, 13, 14 -$57.52
R6........4, 10, 14
R8........9, 12, 14, 16

Belmont
R5........6 +$1.46

Kembla
R5........6
R6........9, 10
R7........14 -$78.02
R8........9, 11, 12, 14

Tamworth
R2........7 +$16.12
R5........2
R6........9, 10

Swan Hill
R4........5, 11, 12, 14
R5........9, 11 -$74.82
R6........10, 11
R8........7

Now I've never had any luck, everytime I post selections (aka Cadillac days, forum curse!), so I hope these fare OK?

Good luck today at whatever you do...RP

P.S. For Saturday's Mark had a rule that you could Lay every runner with a less than 17% win strike rate in lieu of the weekday 10%, so I've incorporated that filter into these selections

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Missed a couple of races:

Gold Coast
R1.........9
R2.........8 +$85.72
R3.........5, 8, 9, 10

Toowoomba
R1.........7, 8
R2.........7, 10 +$52.94
R3.........9
R6.........4, 6
R7.........6, 8

RP

Originally Posted by Shaun

Can you direct me to the thread about doubling liability, must have missed that one.

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Is POT better than POS?

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Now much is made of POT (Profit on Turnover) as a measure of the success or otherwise of Ratings, Systems, Performance. For me, the MORE important consideration is POS (Profit on Stake)

We start each betting day with a stake. An amount we should feel slightly uneasy with if we lose it but more than happy with if we double it as profit!
In the attached sheet, based on actual bets placed yesterday, is a set of bets placed using a theoretical $500 initial stake.

As the day progresses we are doing quite well but take note of how the more you bet the more your POT decreases. If we set a target: that we want to double our stake, we should have stopped betting after bet 4. The punting Gods smiled on us and gave us another 6 opportunities to quit, but we ploughed on!

Then we started to hit the inevitable losing patch, had a choice to quit for the day or start implementing loss recovery by increasing stakes. NOT GOOD. We were given another opportunity to quit at bets 15 -17 but we ploughed on to be hit with another loss. We took a punt and increased our stake 10 fold, which paid off! At the end of the day we achieved our POS target for a measley 3.3% POT and had a free rollercoaster ride at Luna Park.

On another thread the question was asked, "When to Quit?". My answer is,"When you achieve your POS!".
Have a great day, RP

Attached Files

POS.xlsx (12.8 KB, 51 views)

Originally Posted by TheSchmile

Hi RP,

Another interesting post as usual!!

Your theory holds water during one day of betting activity, however doesn't the fact that you go again the next day, then increase your chance of hitting a loser?

Eventually, you have the same statistical chance of hitting a loser, as if you'd carried on after reaching your POS for the day?

E.g. 100 bets over 1 day, or 100 bets over 30 days.

You have the same statistical chance of hitting a loser, UNLESS, you have an edge in the earlier races.

Hope it makes sense, I'm just trying to add an angle to the debate and am enjoying your latest threads IMMENSELY!!

Cheers RP.