Gruss + excel I have a trading sheet that does just this, could never find a trading edge to get it to work auto.

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I've been away for a good holiday the last few weeks and just catching up reading now. Very interesting posts RP. I'm looking forward to your next instalment in this tutorial series.

Good to hear you're back UB. Missed your "Wise Owl" wisdom. I overcame that bot issue, I emailed you about, with BF Bot Manager Multi Strategies and was able to reverse the order of favourites to Lay.
Cheers........... RP

Part 4

The next step is to dismantle your 300+ selections into "bite size" pieces. Sort all results into the following dividend categories : <$1.30, $1.40, $1.50....$2.00. Once completed sort each category with Winners at top and Losers underneath. The attached image is for the category <$1.30

In the cell at bottom of Final Odds enter "=AVERAGE(range)" to get the average of final odds which is $1.24. Now divide 100 by $1.24 = 80.65%. I call this result the FORECAST WSR or forecast win strike rate. It's what the odds forecast as the chances of the selections in this category winning.

Next count the number of races Won (6) and divide by number or races (7) * 100:
(6/7)*100= 85.71%

So we can now compare the two:
Forecast WSR = 80.65%
Actual WSR = 86%

For Backers this is called an Overlay. In other words, selections in this category have more chance of winning than the dividends predict.

(A word of caution: These differences are the result of a very small sample and should not be considered as gospel) It's the technique that's important, and a very powerful one, once you have a larger sample.

OK back to looking at our <$1.30 category. Despite the 80+% WSR the profit isn't so good at $27.16. I'll try and improve on it, so as well as Backing the Favourite we'll Dutch Lay the Field to try and squeeze out a little more profit. I've added that new column to the right of the Back column. Similarly a very small bottom line profit of $9.29.

All up a total profit $36.45 on turnover of $700 = 5.2% POT

But wait there's MORE!!

You need to be like a forensic detective, look harder at the reasons why there were any losses? We see that the loser was "Up in Class". There was a winner too, but if we introduce a new filter and avoid Backing selections in races where favourite is <$130 and "Up in Class" we get a different result. We get 5 wins from 5 races for a profit of $186.85 and 37% POT.

Now remember back in Part 1 of the tutorial we couldn't make any profit out of this Odds/On group but we've just found a niche that's paying 37% on turnover! More importantly we've just learnt a lot more than "mug punter" will ever know about the long term results of betting on selections under $1.30. That's the payday for you, when that light in your head goes ON!!

So if you feel that based on the sampling, the POT is acceptable, we can write our first filter to apply to all results from now on:

=IF(AND(K#="No",G#<1.30),"B"," ")

So what this says is that if the selection isn't up or down in Class and the Odds are less than $1.30 then "B" Back the selection but if not, blank space. You will enter this filter in a cell to the right of your data. It will be one of twenty filters you will employ to build your "Black Box".

Disclaimer: The criteria and formulas used are not a guarantee of future performance. Please be responsible for gathering your own data to apply these techniques to.

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Here's a test for you, to see if you've been paying attention, sitting up the back of the class?

Can you see anything else in the results spreadsheet that sets the two selections that were "up in class" apart from the rest?

???????????????????????????????

Look at + or - Dist, WSR% & 2nd Fav odds. You have to keep looking for that Edge all the time. There's not enough there to be conclusive in this small sample but there's an inkling. That's all you need to sniff out a profit.

Have a Great Day...............RP

Part 5

We now move onto the $1.30 category.Looking at the sorted results we see that there's been more losses than wins.
Calculate the Forecast WSR:

100/1.36 = 73.5%

Calculate the Actual WSR:

3 wins/7 races = 42.8%

So the Forecast WSR is 74% and Actual WSR is 43%, known in the game as an Underlay, a Layers best friend.

Based on our tests we are confident to Lay this category so we do our calculations, to the right hand side, to Lay the $1.30 selections and Dutch Back the Field. Result is a profit of $1,561 on a turnover of $1,400 = 111% POT. A Great Result!!

We check any other conditions that might have assisted a sub group of selections winning or losing, but nothing stands out.
Again beware, this is a very small sample used to demonstrate a technique and should not be relied upon to predict future profit/losses.

If confident that you've found an Edge, write a new filter:

=IF(AND(G#>=1.3,G#<1.4),"L"," ")

"L" indicates to Lay the Fav and Dutch Back the Field.

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RP
Thanks for your posts. Informative. You are laying a horse, dutch laying the field and/or dutch backing the field or no bet as your options. As an integral part of this is your %WSR sheet. Hence if at say 1 minute to jump the odds are $1.30 for the fav, then your sheet says go and do "this". This is after having ascertained that you have the selection ticked off as a selection.

I have thoughts along similar lines but differ on dutching the field either laying or backing. So I am interested.

Firstly I would like to know what we can do and what we can't do and what bot we need. You are dutching at SP so the bot works out a ratio at jump -5 secs and comes up with $25 at $4 odds so you get $25 at the SP of $3.80. thus the slippage. Is there any benefit keeping the dutch bets in play. What happens to the bets still in play? Do they get matched? Do the reasonable ones get matched and the unreasonable one just expire (no match no bet no outlay)?

So what would be the outcome if say you got the ranking from the openers then put in the lay side the following 1st fav $30 @$2 lay, 2nd fav $25 @$3 lay, 3rd fav $20 @$4 etc pro rata to the openers. These are all unders. Then you also dutched the back side. Or at least just the top 90% But you did not do this at SP. You did it at say 1st fav $30 @ $4 2nd fav $25 @ $6 3rd fav $20 @ $9. Etc. These are all overs. Ultimately the figures are the %WSR plus a margin up and a margin down so you would end up with a spread. At just before jump you have an option to cancel or keep or take SP
and green up as required. Could this work and what bot could do it?

Part 6

Continue on sorting and reviewing each price subcategory. Then move on to condition breakdowns like:
Maidens only
Last 3 starts are broken up into 5 sub-categories
Weight change
Distance change
% Win Strike Rate
2nd Fav Odds
Class is broken up into 3 sub-categories
Field Size which can be very profitable

Then start combining 2 or more conditions or price sub-categories. You should end up with a heap of filters. Place them alongside one another in your spreadsheet in what I call the "Black Box".

When I see a race about to start in a minute or so's time I enter all the variables of the selection that meets my price range/favourite criteria. Once entered the "Black Box" will crunch the data and instantly generate signals "B", "L" or "N".

"N" is for No Bet. There will be times while doing your studies that you are split on the effectiveness of Backing or Laying, too close to call!
For example I have found, in the Odds/On category, that a horse "Down in Class" in any Price sub-category can win or lose on an even basis, no profit/loss to make it worthwhile. So I have a filter that generates a "N" for this situation.

I have a filter that returns 80% of liability every bet in a certain Price Range:

=IF(AND(H#<>"RFS",G#>=??,G#=3.5,M#<>"Maiden"),"L"," ")

The "Black Box" is used for staking as well. If the data entered for a selection generates say three "L" signals I increase my stake/liability by three. The skies the limit with this technique. I haven't even scratched the surface of the possibilities.

Once you become disciplined in this approach, there will be no sport that you can't find a profit in! The attachment shows a glimpse of the "Black Box" and the signals it generates. Above is a graph of the potential profit that you can achieve.
This ends this tutorial I hope you have enjoyed the insight into some of my daily activities.
RP

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Beton, a reply like yours makes it all worthwhile! I know that I have limited experience and beleive me I'm happy that you've raised so many queries to perfect this system even more.

To specifics, as a rule, I seldom Dutch Lay the field if Backing the favourite. In the Odds/On category the returns make hard work of recouping losses. Backing the Favourite, as a stand alone, represents about 27% of profit.
I use BF Bot Manager Multi Strategies, Dutchbook and Multi Favourites bots, but also have Betsender and BetBotPro to look after all the different things I've got going at any one time.
Dutch Backing slippage is a real concern and I have discussed that in another thread (Races to Dutch Back). Fortunately it kind of balances out when going SP, "swings and roundabouts" if you know what I mean.
Can't comment on In Play betting, never tried it, l retired from the Building game to avoid further stress!

I hope I have spurred you and others on to entertain new ideas, it gives me a reason to get out of bed in the morning.
Cheers RP

Regards the "test" Rinconpaul.
The only things i can see are:
1) The price of the second fav is "close" to the fav, in relation to the other selections.
and 2) They are both up in distance >=400m, as are others though.

Close as I can get I'm afraid.
Keep up the good work by the way, and just because you don't get a heap of replies don't think that it doesn't get the old brain cells clinking.

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