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#21
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These information threads are fantastic. Thank you CP for the time and effort put into them. Linking the videos is so helpful to understand the thoughts!
Cheers Nitro |
#22
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Thanks for the feedback Nitro.
Certainly it isn't infallible, but it certainly helps to weed out the donkeys. If a horse has a poor stride, it's a waste of time from a punting or racing perspective, owners would be better off breeding the horse and hoping the sire, grand sire lines throw a good strider. As I was going through a lot of old form and horse history, I was actually amazed at the number of slow horses persued with, they seem to pour good money after bad. If a horse doesn't show ability with the first three or four starts, really it's never going to be a top horse. Owners can only make money from top horses, whereas trainers make money from owners I have watched a lot of videos of syndicated horses for sale, and there are a lot of poor striders with good breeding. Needless to say, when I looked up the form later, NONE of them had ever made it into a first four placing at tracks like Echuca and Seymour, let alone win a race. I can't name the horses due to possible legal action, but there are a lot of them for sale as syndicate shares etc. I also poured over hours and hours of old Magic Millions sales video. I marked out possible horses from breeding and stride, some became top liners. Of the horses I marked as poor conformation or stride, there were some winners there, but they were all country winners, no city winners and no black type winners. The percentage of actual winners from poor horses was only a very small percentage, some never made it to the track, and a few are on sale on Gumtree as hobby horses!
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#23
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Still working on the strider selections, so am going to miss today unfortunately.
It's a much bigger task than I anticipated, but it has to be accurate or it's a waste of time. So to ease everyone's sighs of disappointment , here is an example of an excellent strider in trackwork. There is also a nice slow motion of it, to look at the nice stride and how he stretches out. http://youtu.be/blMhuC8l0Mo?t=2m35s However, he stretches and strides nicely, but he is slow Although the sand was dead and heavy, he ran home his last 600m in 39.75 (approx). And that was after having a couple of cuts with the whip. The trainer had a really good feeling about this horse, but I could tell although he was a nice horse with good conformation, he just doesn't have the motor to be a top class racehorse. His name is Trululu, so I looked up his form. He won a maiden claiming race in the country and ran second in a claiming race in the country. He also ran a lot of shockers and never won more than one race, and never made it to the city. In fact, he was retired at the end of 2011, which was his first and last race season.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 27th July 2013 at 11:12 AM. |
#24
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Time to put it on the line!
These are horses I've spotted who have good strides and appear to show some ability. These are horses I've earmarked that might step up in grade and may pay to follow. I don't know whether this will be profitable or not, but I'm going to follow them in a stable system, win, lose or break down. It doesn't matter the time they ran, nor the sectionals, because good horses don't have to run time to win, they just do it with dominance and very often the jockey eases them down. With notable exceptions of Northerly, Octagonal, Kingston Town and others, most good horses do not have to have their ears scrubbed off to win, they make a move at one point in the race which wins them the race. Lonhro was an example, he'd whip around the field and usually take control, that was his trademark. Black Caviar had the race shot to pieces by putting herself in a winning position and then cruising home. Photon Willie Great stride and speed but very green. Nearly threw a race away by wanting to go back to the stable a week ago. On Friday they ran him in a barrier trial at Warwick Farm and he was ridden quietly and then pushed to the line without incident. Pay to follow. Octavia Great stride and won well Saturday.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#25
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Just found out that Altius was injured and resumes at Rosehill in race 3.
99 weeks out with injury. There has been no official trial for this horse.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#26
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Altius was unplaced.
However, he was chopped out at a crucial point and would have run a place. But the jockey was throwing everything at him, and he was never going to actually win.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#27
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Adding to the great strider stable, so far I have Photon Willie and Octavia.
Gregers Henwood
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#28
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Photon Willie
SR 5 # 5 today Henwood R6 Flemington (10 August 2013) |
#29
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Photon Willie no good today, but he still showed a good stride and very hard to come from the back at Canterbury in a 1200m race.
Won't sack him on that effort, still following. Might get generous odds next start!
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#30
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Henwood[/QUOTE]
Couldn't agree more, the way this horse picked them up at the valley over 1200 was decent, albeit a fairly average field, however he did have to make up a fair bit of ground and looked to be a decent strider. |
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