P.S.

Saturday
Metro: 31.33% S/R
Provincial: 32.71% S/R
Country: 31.06% S/R

__________________
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Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

A little off topic but an interesting find

When the rail is out at the Valley - Leaders have a huge advantage at night but not during the day.

Thoughts?

Leaders still have an advantage over certain distances at Moonee Valley.
But when the rail is out, the camber of the turn is tighter, so those up front do have a distinct advantage coupled with the short straight.
Flemington on the other hand, makes no difference at all.
Canterbury is another track, that has the same bias.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

For example:
The average settling position for winners at Moonee Valley, followed by their position at the 400m mark over various distances.

1000m 3.50 3.10
1200m 4.02 3.52
1500m 4.90 3.61
1600m 4.69 3.62
2040m 4.78 3.22

Even over distance you want to be on pace, but at the turn you want to be leading or in the leading pack with a clear run.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

The thing is CP for Moonee Valley in particular Jockeys, Trainers and even majority of punters are aware of the leader bias at MV. Does this mean the value is potentially eroded on front settling type horses. Or even that the pace in some races is so extreme because everyone knows of the bias that it actually ends up favouring mid to back runners?

I know the stats still support a POT for front runners at MV at most distances, but I still think the questions above are relevant.

I think finding leader/front bias at tracks which are less obviously or well known to be suited to leaders is a good approach. For instance i've found Belmont to be pretty supportive of leader types whereas the long straight would in general be deemed as a negative to leader types.

Josh, you are spot on with this over certain distances.
It is not necessarily the length of the straight, but more importantly the size of the track itself and radius of particular turns. The effect on horses on different radiuses is the most important factor in leader bias, mix this with pace (various distances) and there are hidden gems.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Thought I'd post some answers to questions I frequently get:

The database is built on the Filemaker Pro Advanced platform.
All data is exportable to csv, excel, etc.
The database can be used on multiple computers.
It contains all TAB metropolitan, provincial and country races from 1999.
Dividends are from NSW TAB.
Exports can be fully customised, in that you can pick and choose which fields can be exported. This makes it a lot less intensive and easier to work with data you want.

Here is a full list of the fields contained in the database, along with explanations, each of these fields can be queried (apart from the summary fields of course:

<pre>
Field Name Field Type Further Explanation
2nd Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
2nd Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
2nd Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
2nd Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
2nd Last Run BP Number Barrier
2nd Last Run Class Text
2nd Last Run Date Date
2nd Last Run Distance Number
2nd Last Run Event Text
2nd Last Run Going Text Track Condition
2nd Last Run Jockey Text
2nd Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
2nd Last Run Limit Number
2nd Last Run Margin Number
2nd Last Run Placing Number
2nd Last Run Prizemoney Number
2nd Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
2nd Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
2nd Last Run SP Number
2nd Last Run Starters Number
2nd Last Run Time Number Race Time
2nd Last Run Track Surface Text
2nd Last Run Venue Text
2nd Last Run Wgt Number Weight
2nd Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
3rd Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
3rd Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
3rd Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
3rd Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
3rd Last Run BP Number Barrier
3rd Last Run Class Text
3rd Last Run Date Date
3rd Last Run Distance Number
3rd Last Run Event Text
3rd Last Run Going Text Track Condition
3rd Last Run Jockey Text
3rd Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
3rd Last Run Limit Number
3rd Last Run Margin Number
3rd Last Run Placing Number
3rd Last Run Prizemoney Number
3rd Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
3rd Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
3rd Last Run SP Number
3rd Last Run Starters Number
3rd Last Run Time Number Race Time
3rd Last Run Track Surface Text
3rd Last Run Venue Text
3rd Last Run Wgt Number Weight
3rd Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
4th Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
4th Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
4th Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
4th Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
4th Last Run BP Number Barrier
4th Last Run Class Text
4th Last Run Date Date
4th Last Run Distance Number
4th Last Run Event Text
4th Last Run Going Text Track Condition
4th Last Run Jockey Text
4th Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
4th Last Run Limit Number
4th Last Run Margin Number
4th Last Run Placing Number
4th Last Run Prizemoney Number
4th Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
4th Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
4th Last Run SP Number
4th Last Run Starters Number
4th Last Run Time Number Race Time
4th Last Run Track Surface Text
4th Last Run Venue Text
4th Last Run Wgt Number Weight
4th Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
5th Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
5th Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
5th Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
5th Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
5th Last Run BP Number Barrier
5th Last Run Class Text
5th Last Run Date Date
5th Last Run Distance Number
5th Last Run Event Text
5th Last Run Going Text Track Condition
5th Last Run Jockey Text
5th Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
5th Last Run Limit Number
5th Last Run Margin Number
5th Last Run Placing Number
5th Last Run Prizemoney Number
5th Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
5th Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
5th Last Run SP Number
5th Last Run Starters Number
5th Last Run Time Number Race Time
5th Last Run Track Surface Text
5th Last Run Venue Text
5th Last Run Wgt Number Weight
5th Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
Age Number
Age Restriction Text Race Age Restriction
Api Number Average Prizemoney
Api Rank Number Average Prizemoney Rank
Apprentice Text Y/N
Apprentice Claim Text Race Claiming Restrictions Y/N
Barrier Number
Career 2nds Number
Career 3rds Number
Career Place Percentage Number
Career Place Percentage Rank Number
Career Prizemoney Number
Career Prizemoney Rank Number
Career Starts Number
Career Win Percentage Number
Career Win Percentage Rank Number
Career Wins Number
Closing Price Number TAB Price
Closing Price Rank Number
Colour Text
Date Date
Day Text Day Of Week
Days Break Number Days Break Since Last Start
Days2 Number Days Break Since 2nd Last Start
Days3 Number Days Break Since 3rd Last Start
Days4 Number Days Break Since 4th Last Start
Days5 Number Days Break Since 5th Last Start
Dead 2nds Number
Dead 3rds Number
Dead Place Percentage Number
Dead Starts Number
Dead Win Percentage Number
Dead Wins Number
Distance 2nds Number
Distance 3rds Number
Distance Place Percentage Number
Distance Place Percentage Rank Number
Distance Starts Number
Distance Variation Number
Distance Win Percentage Number
Distance Win Percentage Rank Number
Distance Wins Number
Fast 2nds Number
Fast 3rds Number
Fast Place Percentage Number
Fast Starts Number
Fast Win Percentage Number
Fast Wins Number
Favourite Premium Number Second Favourite TAB price minus Favourite TAB price
First Up 2nds Number
First Up 3rds Number
First Up Place Percentage Number
First Up Place Percentage Rank Number
First Up Starts Number
First Up Win Percentage Number
First Up Win Percentage Rank Number
First Up Wins Number
Going Text Track Condition
Good 2nds Number
Good 3rds Number
Good Place Percentage Number
Good Starts Number
Good Win Percentage Number
Good Wins Number
Handicapping Text Handicap, Weight For Age, Set Weights etc.
Heavy 2nds Number
Heavy 3rds Number
Heavy Place Percentage Number
Heavy Starts Number
Heavy Win Percentage Number
Heavy Wins Number
Horse Text
Jockey Text
Last Run 400m Number Position at 400m
Last Run 800m Number Position at 800m
Last Run Age Text Race Age Restriction
Last Run All Number Apprentice Allowance
Last Run BP Number Barrier
Last Run Class Text
Last Run Date Date
Last Run Distance Number
Last Run Event Text
Last Run Going Text Track Condition
Last Run Jockey Text
Last Run Last 600m Number Sectional Time
Last Run Limit Number
Last Run Margin Number
Last Run Metro Track Text
Last Run Placing Number
Last Run Prizemoney Number
Last Run Prizemoney Won Number
Last Run Rest Text Race Sex Restriction
Last Run SP Number
Last Run Starters Number
Last Run Time Number Race Time
Last Run Track Surface Text
Last Run Venue Text
Last Run Wgt Number Weight
Last Run Winner Text Winner or second
Place Number Place TAB Dividend
Place Average Dividend Summary
Place Count Summary
Place Maximum Dividend Summary
Place Minimum Dividend Summary
Place POT Summary
Place Profit Summary
Place Return Summary
Place Strike Rate Summary
Place System Viability Summary
Prizemoney Variation Number Increase or Decrease in Race Prizemoney from Last Start
Pwls Rank Number Prizemoney Won Last Start Rank
Pwlts Number Prizemoney Won Last Three Starts
Pwlts Rank Number Prizemoney Won Last Three Starts Rank
Race Number
Race Class Text
Race Distance Number
Race Name Text
Race Prizemoney Number
Runners Number
Runs Since Spell Number
Same Going Text
Same Track Text
Selections Summary
Settled1 Number Last Start Settling Position
Settled2 Number Second Last Start Settling Position
Settled3 Number Third Last Start Settling Position
Settled4 Number Fourth Last Start Settling Position
Settled5 Number Fifth Last Start Settling Position
Sex Text
Sex Restriction Text Race Sex Restriction
Slow 2nds Number
Slow 3rds Number
Slow Place Percentage Number
Slow Starts Number
Slow Win Percentage Number
Slow Wins Number
State Text VIC, NSW, QLD, WA etc.
Tab Number
Track Text
Track 2nds Number
Track 3rds Number
Track Class Text Metro or Country
Track Place Percentage Number
Track Place Percentage Rank Number
Track Starts Number
Track Surface Text Turf, Dirt, All Weather
Track Win Percentage Number
Track Win Percentage Rank Number
Track Wins Number
Trainer Text
Weight Number
Weight Limit Number Race Weight Limit
Weight Ratio Number Topweight weight minus Second Topweight weight
Weight Variation Number Increase or Decrease in Weight from previous start
Win Number TAB Win Dividend
Win Average Dividend Summary
Win Count Summary
Win Maximum Dividend Summary
Win Minimum Dividend Summary
Win POT Summary Profit On Turnover
Win Profit Summary
Win Return Summary
Win Strike Rate Summary
Win System Viability Summary Profit or Loss Divided by Maximum Win Dividend
</pre>

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi CP.

Glad you mentioned F-M-P in your post.
We are currently in the process of having,
All our excel spread sheets setup & put into it.

Have heard it's a great way to survey data,
When sheets get clogged up with data.

Purchased Pro-12v4 just getting some estimates,
Now and what's required time & expense wise.

Cheers.

Gary, I am a FMP Developer, so maybe I could help out.
If you care to drop me a line, I can give you a quote.
That quotation will be cc'd to Ozmium, so they will receive a commission from me.
It depends on your quotations, I may be able to do better or worse, depending what your requirements are.

racestats at hotmail dot com if you're interested, otherwise good luck with the project, it really is a great and more efficient platform.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

No worries C/P thanks for that.

I will pass this task on to one of my racing,
Partners & assign him this task.

I will also get in touch with my,
Own details once he has made contact.

Give us around 2 x weeks for us to work it all,
Out then we will go from there.

To give you a time limit the project must be finished with payment made By the 31/12/2014.

We all have the product the setup is beyond us.

Leave the Ozmium part up to you, no problems there.

Cheers.
Garyf.