Well those Melbourne Cup systems didn't do too good. Back to the drawing board with those.

RIP Admire Rakti & Araldo

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Hows that Ocho. I had Protectionist in my list of 4 horses ? Go back and check.

I apologise UB. You did pick it as one of four however you removed it from the trifecta system.

I was probably referring to SB's system when I was saying back to the drawing board.

MG's trifecta system got the tri but it cost $4.048K and won 1.9K.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Yeah I constantly try to get down to a just a few selections but always better to go a little wider in the cup for safety.

Yes, T.O. the method lost even though it had the trifecta.

It loses most years but every so often there's a fantastic result. For example, when Vintage Crop won (so did the method) the trifecta paid $60,000. There's also been other good years.
And if the win section of the trifecta had been bet to Win on Betfair to collect $100 then the profit would be outstanding, with only one losing year. That was when Bart Cummings had his last winner (I can't remember the name of the horse...was it Viewed?).

Whilst on the subject of multis, here's another approach. Look at % change in Back price since the Open. The graph shows the plus or minus change in price for each runner. The first four placing's never had a plus/minus change in price above 15%. Debatable though, whether the payoff (positive) was as cost effective as simpler methods?

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Think you might be a little harsh on Speedy's system here TO with regards your call to 'go back to the drawing board'. A couple of things I noted in the aftermath - follow up to the race, and in hindsight of course...

1. Speedy (or someone else else here?) did mention that 'the rules'will be broken one day - who or what guarantees they will stick 100% in perpetuity? Not sure there is such a system anywhere. For instance, 7yo's do win, just not as often?

2. Only ONE of the rules were broken in my book being No.days since last start= 24 (3-17d was the consensus I believe). Might be wrong bc I don't have my s/s in front of me just now.

3. Protectionist had one of the best if not the best jock in the world on top.

For these reasons, I had a saver bet on the nose which saved my bacon on the day. I also noted that one of Dom Bierne's favorite means of whitling them down had Protectionist in a short list of 4-5. NO need to go back to the drawing board here my good friend. It is STILL possible to pick the winner of the cup from a handful of chances I reckon.

That's my musings on the 2014 Melbourne Cup.. DONE and dusted!

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Michaelg, have you had a look at TAB ProBet? Haven't used it myself, but the free version claims to do dutching on exotics with flexi. It increases and decreases stakes on particular selections so that you have no losing combinations, but still allow you to have your big standouts. I'm guessing it works by automatically placing multiple flexi bets to get the right stake for each combo.

A few things to remember based on Speedy's elimination rules:

Protectionist was only excluded based on one rule as far as I can tell (hadn't won a group 2/3 race or placed in a group 1 race in a lead up race within aus). I see this as a very good rule but thought it would be the first to be broken given the number of internationals that continue to attend and not run good or any leadup races. Therefore I included protectionist as at least it did have A lead up run even if it didn't place.

Also to remember, who shot the barman and signoff were 2 of Speedy's 3 selections and they finished 3rd and 4th.

I'm still shocked that Red Cadeaux ran 2nd again and looked pretty comfortable when it hit the front too. Definitely think speedy's rules still work

Hi, FredTheMug. I'm not aware of TAB ProBet. It sounds very interesting but the only concern I've got is the word TAB...and also at the moment I'm into laying not backing. Is TAB ProBet connected to a TAB or an independent betting agency...I think it could be worthwhile investigating?