Hi, I just ran your figures thru my sheets, it appears you avg payoff is just under $3.00 working on your figures the kelly optimum is 5.21% so to allow for some risk an some gain its wise to stick to approx half of this figure.

woof,
My average dividend is $4.01.
I am betting roughly $400 on a BR of $50K, so I am currently betting less than 1%.
Should I be betting a percentage of the increasing bank rather than a flat stake?

How old is everyone here. 50k is alotta money.

Yep sorry, I just realized 8.7% is full kelly for a 50/50 bet.

Average price is actually $3.99, with a stikerate of 28.99%. Fully kelly suggests betting 5.24% of your bankroll on each bet.

It is better to bet a % of your bankroll, you experience exponential growth.

Like Woof said, betting Full Kelly is a bit dangerous. My opinion is you should be betting 3.59%. With your record, there is a 97.5% chance you will hit 10.7%POT or greater going forward, meaning 3.59% would be the full kelly figure. You are very safe betting this %.

So to answer your original question, there is a 97.5% chance that your edge going forward is at least 10.7%.

As to bet size, you should choose a size you are comfortable with, as long as it's not overbetting. You might not feel comfortable with 3.59%, but you should definately be betting more than you currently are. Maybe 2 to 2.5%???

Betting a larger % will lead to larger swings, but your BR will also grow alot quicker. Taking 6k out of a 150k BR hurts less than taking it out of a 50k BR.

Knowledge.

First of all, I'm in this to make money, not enjoy myself. I still enjoy betting, but if I wanted just pleasure I'd be betting more of my own picks.

I make my own picks on AFL/NRL/Super 12s using a system I created. This system is based of statistics, not historical trends (sportznut :wink Has performed pretty well (10%+) and gives around 300-350 bets. I really did this to see if I could beat sports myself, off my own numbers etc.

Most of my bets come from this site and handicappers (guys who analyse and create picks) I know. E.g, I get tennis, baseball and soon probally NBA from this site (2000 bets right there). I also bet on US college sports (bball and football), NFL, NHL and golf from guys I know.

There are around 4000-5000 bets per year there, all with an edge of at least 4%. Most of these are around 10%.

I figure why create my own picks when I can just use someone elses. The amount of time it takes to create my own picks is just better used finding other guys to follow. I do alot of research when I find someone I'm interested in following.

It's important to take your time when trying to find cappers to follow. I'm not talking 'touts' (who are garbage, they're either frauds or in denial), I'm talking handicappers. Guys who use skills and information to come up with bets that actually have an edge. It takes time (as this site would know) to find someone who is genuinely profitable.

I try to find a handicappers in major sports (sports with high betting limits and a large volume of games...). I look for guys who have at least a longterm 5% edge over a statistically significant sample.

I also hit sportsbook promo's. Things like deposit bonuses, low vig (where the house edge is less than the standard 4.5%) free half points etc etc. You can make a TON of money of promo's.

If you want a good place to start, you can't go wrong with this site. There really aren't many genuine and profitable sites out there, but you are at one so take advantage of it.



thefan

21, and yeh 50k ain't bad at all. I'd be looking to turn that into at least 200k within a year :wink:

alright thanks man. I appreciate your help. Hopefully I can learn from you and the others at these forums.

the fan,
Age 44.
The $50K is my working bank - I actually have about $20K spread across the three totes and online books. The other $30K is in a Macquarie Bank 24hr Call A/C so if I need it, it's there.

Mr J,
Thankyou very much for the info. On the figures I should be betting around $1000 per play but on a bad week I could drop $12K.
Psychologically this is a tad much for me.
The most I've lost in a week over the past seven years is $5500 and that hurt although I had it back within 3 weeks.
I also have to be careful not to overbet the dogs as my cream comes when I back $8+ winners. If I increased the bets on those dogs, the dividends would drop slightly.

Hi, I would start with an Overall Bankroll, then set aside a Session Bankroll, this Session Bankroll would be based on your anticipated run of outs.
Not knowing you betting history but based on my own experiences an using your information, your Base Bet per betting series should be approx $80 then extending to a Max Bet size of $390. these too figures would be a % proportion of your Session Bankroll.
The best idea would be to look at your past history, find the avg Number of bets in each betting series before you have a drawdown.
Then work at what point in your betting series was your maximum bankroll an your minimum bankroll, eg i avg approx 120 races per week that invest i find that on avg my minimum bankroll is approx around the 30-45 races envelope an my maximum is later, with this knowledge you can then adjust your Kelly optimum % to determine your Base Bet an Maximum bet size.

Too many people try to make something simple difficult.
It is so simple to me to bet a given selection inproportion to the chance I give said selection.
If you like something in one race more than in another,then you put more on it!
Kelly,maths,POT's,.I don't know!
Well maths maybe.

Thanks for sharing your information with us. I usually back grey hounds only. Ive had my good and bad days. But the bad days out weight the good. Noting that I just back placing,the dogs still like to take the long route around the course.

Can anyone convince me the advantages of backing greyhounds.