If you are using excel, you need to use the ROUNDDOWN function. Learn about it in the help menu. I find it very helpful when calculating my next bet amount.

Placegetter

Thanks Placegetter.

I was only trying to illustrate the risk involved, didn't want to be precise.

But thanks anyway.

Hi gravel,

I think you are being a bit generous with your win percentage there but whichever way you look at it the system is overdue for a bust!

I just don't see the benefit in a system that needs a bank of $1000 to get started with $1 bets and where you have to work 7 days a week for a return of $35-$100! I don't know what other people do for a living but that is certainly not enough for me to retire on!! If you wanted a decent profit (say $1000/week) you would have to have a truly enormous bank (and not mind risking it all every single day) - either that or you would have to sell the system :smile:

why would anyone fork out $33.00 /week to win $5.00/day or in laymens terms
$2.00 /week. that is $33 out and 7 by $5 in, total $35 minus $33 equals the princely
sum of $2 profit
Hi dino
that calculation is right , but you believe too much and have indeed missed something.
You have no idea and just copy what some others are saying and believe it to be true
regards bert

Now without analysing all your data for strike rate,
======
You alll keep harping on the strike rate and level stakes, why???
it has nothing to with level stakes to start with, If there are 60 races for the day , I might tip 70 horses, but we stop at out first collect which usually happens in the first few races , so why would you want to include 6o or so extra bets at level stakes into the calculation just to show that it won't make a profit that way, we all know it won't and we are not betting level stakes, so who cares.
regards Bert

Bert,
The reason is very simple. If we know your strike rate of all selections then we can easily work out what the probability is of your system failing to pick a winner for the whole day (or within the number of bets which will lose you your whole bank). Once we find out what this probability is we can see how often that event is likely to happen.

Do you even acknowledge that it is possible for you to get no wins for a given day or is your horse selection so perfect that it is impossible for you to get no winners????

I seriously suggest you sit down one day and work out a few different scenarios based on the number of bets per day. eg. If you have 30 selections for the day what is the probability that you will get no winners over $4.00 and what will the average loss be if that occurs. Repeat that for 40 selections, 50 selections, etc. (The higher the number of selections the lower the chance of getting no winners but the higher the potential loss). Then work out what the chance that one of these events could have occurred in the last 9 months (I know it hasn't for you but what if it did) - what would your profit be if it had happened 1 or 2 or 3 times??

Of course if you truly believe you are invincible and cannot miss then good luck to you - just watch out for the bus coming down the road!

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-14 10:29 ]

Maybe you can enlighten all us experts as to how you have bypassed the
laws of chance and probability and guaranteed that you will never have a day when
none of your selections win?=======
Hi Be careful
The secret lies in picking the bigger priced winners and you couldn't possibly be expecting for me to tell you how.

And NO I am not Guaranteeing that , but you are all trying to make me say that so you can shoot it down.
All I am saying is that it has worked for 9 months in succession earning an avg of $500-$800 per Month for trying to win just $5 per day(are you taking notes DINO, this is the calculation).
And this is FACT and I have the stuff to back it up, which is more than some of you are coming up with, with quotes such as , "I believe " and "It can't work because someone else tried it once and lost everything"
Why would anyone with any sort of good experience in this field rely on hear say and expect something new to be the same as the previous one, just because one or two factors look the same.
There is No way that any of you can say for sure that this will break down, because you don't know the way I pick them to start with.
You only know the calculations part.
Sure in the past many people have tried to do this and failed and the reason was most times that the selection method only picked low priced winners, but if they had found some way of picking more winners with longer prices , then they might have succeeded.
The whole Tipping industry involves tipping short ones because they reckon they are the best horses, ok there are a few but the stats in the sportsman a while back showed that they lose more than they win, so what are the tipsters doing wrong then.??
If you know that , then you know how I do it now.

regards Bert

I know what most tipsters do wrong (and indeed most punters as well) - they look for the horse with the best chance to win but they don't give a damn about the odds. Eg. lets say we have 8 horses in race with the following chances of winning:

1=40%, 2=20%, 3&4=10%, 5&6&7&8=5%

Now most tipsters & punters will pick 1 as the winner with 2 as the danger and 40% of the time they will be correct (or 20% if they go for the danger horse) but what if the odds on that race are as follows:
1=$2, 2=$4, 3=$9, 4=$15, 5&6=$18, 7=$20, 8=$40
Now most punters who dont look at the odds will back horse 1 or maybe 2 but in the long run they will lose money because the odds are worse than the winning chances. The correct bets in this example would be horse 4 or horse 8 because the odds are better than they should be. This is how you get a profit at level stakes and a winning system - you need to find the horses where the odds are better than they should be.

With salesmanship like that, I can't believe we all haven't been convinced so much sooner.

Quapi, please delete the threads as promised, he's had his go.

Placegetter

I received yesterdays free trial from Bert, just to have a look. Now I'm not stupid but I could not follow the spreadsheet etc of what to do. There were 87 selections for 12 winners (not the best) BUT I do know that he says to stop once you get a winner. He picked the winners of the 2nd & 3rd races, NZR4 & R5, that paid $4.70 & $7.10, so it was a winning day. It's not something I would use but it did win & who knows it may go on winning forever, because if you can't pick 1 winner at $4 or better out of 87 picks, you don't deserve to win. Good luck to him.