It would be handy to have a speadsheet to do all the calculations.

Just a thought.

Benny

In working out your ratings you say take the winning % and add it to the for and against %.

Please explain with an example as I'm havig trouble with it.

Benny

I'm having second thoughts about that idea. While I certainly think it's a good idea if you want to base it on a whole season's results, you wouldn't be able to do it on just a few games as the % figures would be all out of whack. You'd need a fair number of games to base it on.

Anyway, here's what I mean: Using this year's AFL Ladder, Port Adelaide had 17 wins from their 22 games. That's a winning % of 77.3%. Their for and against % was 132.4% Add 77.3 and 132.4 and you get 209.7. Then divide that by two to get their final rating of 104.85 which I rounded up to 104.9.

How can it be adapted for soccer?

Benny

Hmmmm, I'll have a look at that.

I've had a bit of a think about it. This looks like an okay system. You could add a team's Competition Points to it's Goal Difference and then divide that total by the number of games they've played. Again, you must make sure you have a fair few games to go on. Using this year's EPL table so far:

Team Pld GD Pts (RATING)
Chelsea 17 25 40 (3.82)
Everton 17 7 36 (2.53)
Arsenal 17 22 35 (3.35)
Man Utd 17 12 31 (2.53)
Middlesbrough 17 7 29 (2.12)
Liverpool 17 7 27 (2.00)
Aston Villa 17 3 25 (1.65)
Charlton 17 -8 24 (0.95)
Bolton 17 1 23 (1.41)
Tottenham 17 -1 22 (1.24)
Portsmouth 17 -2 22 (1.18)
Newcastle 17 -4 21 (1.00)
Man City 17 3 20 (1.35)
Fulham 17 -9 18 (0.65)
Birmingham 17 -5 17 (0.71)
Norwich 17 -11 15 (0.24)
Crystal Palace 17 -7 14 (0.41)
Blackburn 17 -14 14 (0.00)
Southampton 17 -9 13 (0.24)
West Bromwich 17 -17 10 (-0.41)

Now, I'm not totally sure how much advantage to give for home grounds. Perhaps 1 goal??? So say Arsenal is playing Man City at Arsenal, on these ratings they should win by exactly 3 goals. But most of them won't work out that well. Not quite sure what you should do when you have a team winning by .67 of a goal or something.

I reckon we should round off to the nearest half goal just to give us an idea. I've tried it out on this week's games. Let's see how they go.

Birmingham City vs West Bromwich Albion (Birmingham by 2 goals)
Blackburn Rovers vs Everton (Everton by 1.5 goals)
Bolton Wanderers vs Manchester City (Bolton by 1 goal)
Chelsea vs Norwich City (Chelsea by 4.5 goals)
Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa (Middlesborough by 1.5 goals)
Tottenham Hotspur vs Southampton (Tottenham by 2 goals)
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace (Man. Utd by 3 goals)
Liverpool vs Newcastle United (Liverpool by 2 goals)
Portsmouth vs Arsenal (Arsenal by 1 goal)
Charlton Athletic vs Fulham (Charlton by 1.5 goals)

Hmmm, not sure about those predictions. You'd think there'd be at least 1 draw somewhere.

So why not do that!
I do.
A1 Home team score
B1 Away team score
C1, 0.955^(A1-B1)+1

Of course your Inputs into the data cells must be in terms of actual points.
So with the ratings you originally came up with,Benny,you may have to multiply them by a factor of 10.
Sportznuts seems to have a much firmer grasp of what ratings are trying to represent!
Your ratings Benny,seem to get the teams in correct ability order,but don't really show the actual difference in ability between any 2 teams.
But that is fine for tipping competitions.

And Sportznut,It's nice to see someone remembers something useful that I have contributed,from amongst all the utter bull******** that have escaped from the clouded analysis of too much "Vitamin B".

Sportznut!
Had a look at your modified ratings.
Really have to disagree about what you have done to Brisbane.
Is it because Brisbane tend to be slow starters early and build up form through the year?
In that case I applaud your modification.
I think that shows why I tend to do poorly early in the season.Because I am using form from late last year and don't modify my ratings until I have some match results.
And the pre-season wizard cup doesn't really reflect what most teams will achieve during the early home and away games.
Anyway,114 for Brisbane for early games could be fine,but I wouldn't use such a low rating as that to predict their chances of a further premiership!
Good fortune to the new season,Sportznut and hopefully this forum builds up a large base of successful AFL punters.

Well, I've worked out a table of value prices for each predicted margin in the AFL. They are not totally exact, but I think they're close enough to give you a good rough guide. Thanks again to Mo for the formula which I've based this on. Haven't done it all in a spreadsheet for you Benny, but this should be some help.

Predicted
Margin - Team A - Team B
1....... - $1.95 - $2.05
2....... - $1.91 - $2.10
3....... - $1.87 - $2.15
4....... - $1.83 - $2.20
5....... - $1.80 - $2.25
6....... - $1.77 - $2.30
7....... - $1.73 - $2.37
8....... - $1.70 - $2.44
9....... - $1.67 - $2.50
10..... - $1.63 - $2.57
11..... - $1.60 - $2.65
12..... - $1.57 - $2.75
13..... - $1.55 - $2.82
14..... - $1.52 - $2.90
15..... - $1.50 - $3.00
16..... - $1.48 - $3.10
17..... - $1.46 - $3.20
18..... - $1.44 - $3.30
19..... - $1.42 - $3.40
20..... - $1.40 - $3.50
21..... - $1.38 - $3.65
22..... - $1.36 - $3.80
23..... - $1.34 - $3.95
24..... - $1.32 - $4.10
25..... - $1.30 - $4.30
26..... - $1.29 - $4.45
27..... - $1.28 - $4.57
28..... - $1.27 - $4.70
29..... - $1.26 - $4.85
30..... - $1.25 - $5.00
31..... - $1.24 - $5.17
32..... - $1.23 - $5.35
33..... - $1.22 - $5.55
34..... - $1.21 - $5.75
35..... - $1.20 - $6.00
36..... - $1.19 - $6.25
37..... - $1.18 - $6.55
38..... - $1.17 - $6.90
39..... - $1.16 - $7.25
40..... - $1.15 - $7.65
41- 42 - $1.14 - $8.15
43- 44 - $1.13 - $8.70
45- 46 - $1.12 - $9.30
47- 48 - $1.11 - $10.10
49- 50 - $1.10 - $11.00
51- 53 - $1.09 - $12.10
54- 56 - $1.08 - $13.50
57- 59 - $1.07 - $15.30
60- 64 - $1.06 - $17.60
65- 69 - $1.05 - $21.00
70- 74 - $1.04 - $26.00
75- 79 - $1.03 - $34.00
80- 89 - $1.02 - $51.00
90+.... - $1.01 - $101.00